cotton futures news

cotton futures news

October 18th, 2018
The USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for October contained a couple of surprises. The revisions of the 2018/19 world cotton numbers included a large — and long-awaited — revision to India’s historical balance sheets covering 2002-2013 crops.

For the 2018/19 balance sheet, this was reflected by a 2.9 million-bale month-over-month reduction to Indian carry-in stocks. This cut went straight to the bottom line, reducing Indian and foreign ending stocks. World production was cut 310,000 bales, mainly from a half-million bale reduction in Australia that outweighed smaller increases elsewhere. World consumption was reduced by 180,000 bales, mainly in Turkey.

The bottom line of all these adjustments was a fundamentally bullish 3.01 million bale reduction in world ending stocks, month-over-month.

The October revisions to 2018/19 U.S. cotton involved another surprising, albeit small, increase in U.S. supply. This adjustment was attributed to production increases in Texas and Georgia (pre-Hurricane Michael) that outweighed post-Hurricane Florence reductions in the Carolinas. U.S. 2018/19 exports were reduced by 200,000 bales to reflect lower world trade and consumption.

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gold futures news

gold futures news

October 16th, 2018

Gold futures on Tuesday looked likely to extend a rally that has returned prices to July levels, with a generally upbeat tone in place even with volatile stock markets quieted.

Fresh weakness for a leading dollar index helped gold hold higher ground as December gold GCZ8, +0.33% rose $2.90, or 0.2%, to $1,233 an ounce. A close at this level would mark the highest since July 26, according to FactSet data.

Meanwhile, December SIZ8, +0.53% silver rose 6 cents, or 0.5%, to $14.795 an ounce.

Stocks indicated a stronger start a day after a tech-driven retreat. Stocks have been highly volatile amid mounting concerns over rising Treasury rates TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.36% stirring interest in haven gold.

A rapid rise in rates also has coincided with weakness in the U.S. dollar, which has helped to remove a headwind for the precious commodity. Gold tends to gain when the dollar is weaker because the assets become relatively more attractive to buyers using other monetary units. One popular measure of the buck, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, -0.06% was down 0.1% at 94.96 early Tuesday. The dollar is just in the red for the month of October so far.

Recent dollar weakness has defied the stronger dollar trend in the year so far, a rise fueled by monetary policy tightening at the Federal Reserve and leaving the popular gauge of the U.S. currency up 3.1% so far in 2018, according to FactSet.. The Fed has hiked interest rates three times this year and may do so a fourth time before year-end, which could provide some resistance to gold bulls because rising rates are likely to juice the dollar and make risk-free government bonds a more attractive investment when compared against bullion.

Gold is up 2.6% so far for October, trimming its year-to-date drop to close to 7%.

Analyst Mark Hulbert, writing for MarketWatch, is skeptical that the swivel to upbeat trading in gold has legs.

“This rally began when the mood among gold market-timers was already surprisingly upbeat. According to contrarian analysis, this means that the current rally is likely to quickly fizzle,” he wrote.

- By Myra P. Saefong at MarketWatch.