orange juice futures

orange juice futures

November 27th, 2017

“Market will tighten again in 2018-19 and approach record-low stock levels” with “higher prices likely” in long term following hurricane damage to Florida groves and dry conditions in Brazil expected, Andres Padilla, beverage analyst at Rabobank in Sao Paulo, says in report.

* Brazil’s 2018-19 juice output may drop 21% to 950,000 tons y/y
* In Florida, damage from Hurricane Irma “could be long lasting, reaching beyond the immediately increased fruit droppage in 2017-18”
* Juice output may drop to 235,000 tons in 2017-18 and 250,000 in 2018-19, down from 390,000 in 2016-17
* Prices may rise even as demand will continue declining this year and next at ~4% in volume; Europe’s use seen ebbing at slower rate than U.S.
* In 2018-19, global juice supply is set to drop 15% to 1.6m tons y/y; balance may shift to deficit of 80,000 tons from surplus of same amount

- Marvin G. Perez Bloomberg.