cocoa futures news

cocoa futures news

December 9th, 2016

Plummeting cocoa prices could spur demand, with processing margins at their highest level in years, analyst Judith Ganes-Chase said.

Ms Ganes-Chase said market were ‘underestimating’ the scale of current cocoa processing, suggesting the size of this year’s market surplus may less than thought.

Cocoa prices in New York are plumbing their lowest level in over three years, under pressure from the big crop in West Africa.

“More and more observers are expecting to see a sizeable oversupply in the current 2016-17 crop year,” said Commerzbank on Friday.

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cocoa options

cocoa options

December 9th, 2016

Cocoa futures dropped to the lowest level in three-and-a-half years, headed for a sixth session of losses as more predictions of a global surplus hit the market.

Cocoa for March dropped 2.2% to $2,223 a ton on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange, on track for its lowest close since July 10, 2013.

“More and more observers are seeing a sizeable oversupply,” Commerzbank said in a note.

Judith Ganes Chase, president of research firm J. Ganes Consulting, said traders should be cautious about assuming that big crops in cocoa will lead to oversupply. She said she anticipates demand will recover as processing margins improve under lower prices.

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cocoa futures news

cocoa futures news

November 23rd, 2016

Speculators, who have been big players in ag markets such as soybeans and sugar this year, will remain “quite active” in 2017, Rabobank said – naming cocoa as its most bullish bet for next year, and coffee the most bearish.

The appeal of ags to hedge funds “is unlikely to change in 2017″, Rabobank said, citing the quest by investors for yield at a time of low borrowing costs.

“Interest rates are expected to rise only very slowly, keeping investors looking for higher returns,” the bank said, adding that index funds may also “be back in the market toward the second half of next year”.

“The interest in commodity index funds, which offer a hedge against inflation, may be rekindled if fear of inflation reappear,” with Rabobank noting “a few signs”, from the likes of bond market spreads, that the pace of global price rises may “slightly increase” next year.

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cocoa futures news

cocoa futures news

September 9th, 2016

Cocoa futures plunged over 4% on the news that Côte d’Ivoire may cancel, and then remarket 200,000-250,000 tonnes of exports – threatening a round of fresh selling pressure.

Early on Friday, the news hit the market that exporters will have six days to furnish documentation for export contracts, including proof of a counterparty, or their exports will be resold by the state marketing board.

If all contracts are cancelled, that would equal nearly 15% of total Ivorian production last year.

Cocoa Futures: Unhedged exports

According to Reuters, domestic exporters purchased contracts for the 2016-17 season without securing a price with off-takers.

Since the fall in global prices, the exporter now faces heavy losses.

The cancellation of these contracts means that physical supplies which were previously thought sold now have to be remarketed to international buyers.

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cocoa options

cocoa options

April 22nd, 2016

Cocoa futures hit fresh 2016 highs, after Asian grinders reported higher-than-expected volumes.

Asian cocoa grinding was up 2.9% in the first three months to 2016, compared to the same time last year, according to data from the Cocoa Association of Asia (CAA).

Grinding, which is treated as a proxy for consumer demand, came in at at 148,911 tonnes.

This was better than market expectations, which pointed to an increase of around 1%.

Cocoa Futures: No drop in Indonesia

Malaysia, Asia’s second-largest cocoa processor, had already reported an increase in grind of 4%.

But markets were uncertain whether that increase represented a real uptick in demand, or simply a shifting of volumes away from Indonesia, the top-ranked grinder.

Friday’s data release makes it clear that Indonesia also saw rising volumes.

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cocoa options

cocoa options

January 22nd, 2016

Cocoa markets rose, as some strong data on Asian grinding counteracted disappointment at data for North America showing an unexpectedly large drop in volumes.

Cocoa grinding, the processing of beans into butter and powder, is treated as a proxy for demand.

The Cocoa Association of Asia reported cocoa grinding in Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia, the continent’s main processors, at 161,227 tonnes in the last three months of 2015, up 14% year-on-year.

This still leaves grinding down 2.8% over the full calendar year, at 597,452 tonnes.

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cocoa futures brokers

cocoa futures brokers

January 7th, 2016

Cocoa futures continued to plummet, amid volatile and high volume trading, amid ongoing uncertainty about West African production prospects.

Front-month cocoa futures fell nearly 3% in morning deals in New York, to $2,898 a tonne, extending gains this week nearly to 10% .

The selldown, which has taken prices 15% below a five-year high a month ago, contrasts with a strong performance by the bean last year, over which it was one of the few commodities to post gains.

Gains of 10% in New York over the year, and  of 14% in London, made it “the outstanding soft commodity in 2015,” Ecobank said.

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cocoa futures brokers

cocoa futures brokers

November 27th, 2015

Cocoa production outstripped demand last season, according to the International Cocoa Organisation, which previously saw a deficit in stocks.

And production in Ghana is forecast to recover this year, thanks to a government drive for improvements.

For the 2014-15 season, which recently came to an end in the key West African growing region, the ICCO saw global cocoa production outpacing supply by 36,000 tonnes, where it had previously seen a shortfall of 15,000 tonnes.

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cocoa futures news

cocoa futures news

November 20th, 2015

Cocoa prices climbed to the highest in more than four years as dryness in Indonesia and slowing deliveries in Ivory Coast added to concerns about supply.

The’ll probably be a global deficit of about 150,000 metric tons of cocoa this season, according to Rabobank International. El Nino is parching crops in Indonesia, the third-biggest grower, and dryness earlier this year in West Africa means output in top producer Ivory Coast may be smaller than last season, said Carlos Mera Arzeno, an analyst at the bank in London. Cocoa deliveries to Ivory Coast ports slowed in the most recent week.

Ivory Coast deliveries “decelerated faster than the market was expecting,” Mera said. “If we see lower arrivals in the next few weeks, that would be bullish for the market.”

Cocoa for delivery in March rose as much as 1.3 percent to $3,420 a ton on ICE Futures U.S. in New York, the highest level since March 2011. It traded at $3,406 by 7:23 a.m. local time. The commodity has risen 17 percent this year, the biggest gain in the S&P GSCI Index of 24 raw materials.

Port arrivals in Ivory Coast were about 50,000 tons in the week ended Nov. 15, down from 61,000 tons a week earlier, according to a person familiar with government statistics who asked not to be identified because the figures haven’t been published.

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cocoa options

cocoa options

September 30th 2015

Cocoa futures prices will rise as production in the Ivory Coast, world’s largest grower, falls back, Ecobank said.

The Togo-based bank forecast falling cocoa outputs in the Ivory Coast, as well as Nigeria and Cameroon, while the outlook for second-largest grower Ghana is “clouded by uncertainty”.

The four West African countries account for over 70% of the world’s cocoa production between them.

“With global demand recovering and expectations of a global deficit this season, we expect prices to strengthen further,” Ecobank said, noting the potential for price spikes ahead of the new season starting in October, as farmers hold back beans in expectation of higher fixed prices coming season.

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