cocoa futures news

cocoa futures news

March 24th, 2017

Cocoa is the best bet among soft commodities, Commerzbank said, forecasting price rises – in contrast to somewhat bearish expectations for coffee and, especially, sugar futures.

The bank termed “exaggerated… the slump” in New York cocoa futures which took them to $1,881 a tonne last month – a nine-year low on a spot contract basis, and down 45% from a high set in late 2015.

While acknowledging the “huge rise” in world cocoa output in 2016-17 – backed by estimates of a record crop in top producer Cote d’Ivoire – the bank viewed as overplayed ideas voiced by the International Cocoa Organization last week of global production surpluses for years ahead.

“We are sceptical at the moment that ICCO concerns about a period of structural surpluses on the cocoa market are justified.”

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cocoa futures news

cocoa futures news

February 21st, 2017

Cocoa futures prices plunged to eight-and- a-half year lows last week, on ideas of a substantial glut in the market, thanks to a huge crop in Cote D’Ivoire, the world’s top producer.

But with much of the crop reported to be stuck in lorries, or rotting on the trees, and with farmer incomes squeezed by low prices and slow sales, how long can this market surplus last?

And if cocoa processors step in to buy and the current rock-bottom price, after depleting their butter and powder stocks during a low period of low grinding, will they find the volumes and the quality they expect?

Cocoa Futures: Government programme backfires

Farmers in Cote D’Ivoire are struggling to find buyers for their beans, after a large number of local exporters reneged on contracts.

“What appears to be the root cause is that an attempt by the government to try to improve the position of small exporters has backfired very badly,” explains Edward George, head of commodity research at the pan-African bank Ecobank.

The Ivorian Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) this season increased the share of contracts they gave to small local exporters, allowing them to buy beans locally and sell them onto the international market.

“The CCC wanted to give the smaller exporters a bigger piece of the pie,” Mr George says.

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cocoa options

cocoa options

February 7th, 2017

Cocoa prices should regain some ground by the end of 2017 following a prolonged slide fueled by expectations for a global surplus in the current 2016/17 season, a Reuters poll of nine traders and analysts showed on Tuesday.

The survey’s median forecast for New York cocoa futures prices at the end of the year was $2,400 a tonne, up 17 percent from Monday’s close.

London cocoa futures were also seen rising, with a median forecast of 1,880 pounds a tonne for the end of 2017, up 12 percent from Monday’s close.

Supportive factors included a potential pick-up in demand later this year, the prospect of lower farmer prices helping to curb production and concerns there could be further unrest in top producer Ivory Coast.

“We expect some pick up in demand towards the middle of the calendar year due to lower prices,” said Carlos Mera, senior commodity analyst at Rabobank.

New York cocoa futures fell by 33 percent in 2016, the biggest annual loss since 1999, and have fallen a further 4 percent so far this year.

The decline was driven partly by an anticipated swing from a global deficit in the 2015/16 season (October/September) to an expected surplus in 2016/17.

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cocoa futures news

cocoa futures news

January 18th, 2018

London cocoa futures rose on Wednesday, lifted by a weaker pound and renewed concerns over unrest in top producer Ivory Coast.

The March London cocoa contract was up 22 pounds, or 1.2 percent, at 1,814 pounds a tonne by 1312 GMT.

Prices were supported by a weaker pound, which fell back after making its biggest one-day gain since at least 1998 in the previous session.

The market was also keeping a close watch on unrest in the Ivory Coast.

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cocoa options

cocoa options

December 22nd, 2016

Cocoa speculators have turned net-short on cocoa futures for the first time in years – just as prices are testing major long-term support.

If you’re still looking for last minute gift ideas for that trader on your list, a few shares or contracts in cocoa may do the trick. That’s because the sweet commodity may be well-positioned for a bounce following a 12-month rout. First, let’s look at prices as determined by the iPath Bloomberg Cocoa Subindex Total Return SM Index ETN, ticker, NIB. NIB is presently testing the 27-28 level that represents the fund’s all-time lows set in 2011-2013.

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cocoa options

cocoa options

December 13, 2016

Raw sugar futures fell into bear market territory Tuesday as traders exiting long positions largely looked past a boost to gasoline prices in Brazil.

Raw sugar for March delivery dropped 3.4% to end at 18.60 cents a pound on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange, the lowest close for the most active contract since June 2.

The sugar market is still heavily long, with the bulls outweighing the bears by 174,459 contracts as of last Tuesday, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. At the close, the market was down 22% from its most recent high reached Oct. 5, pushing it into bear market territory.

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cocoa futures news

cocoa futures news

December 9th, 2016

Plummeting cocoa prices could spur demand, with processing margins at their highest level in years, analyst Judith Ganes-Chase said.

Ms Ganes-Chase said market were ‘underestimating’ the scale of current cocoa processing, suggesting the size of this year’s market surplus may less than thought.

Cocoa prices in New York are plumbing their lowest level in over three years, under pressure from the big crop in West Africa.

“More and more observers are expecting to see a sizeable oversupply in the current 2016-17 crop year,” said Commerzbank on Friday.

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cocoa futures news

cocoa futures news

November 23rd, 2016

Speculators, who have been big players in ag markets such as soybeans and sugar this year, will remain “quite active” in 2017, Rabobank said – naming cocoa as its most bullish bet for next year, and coffee the most bearish.

The appeal of ags to hedge funds “is unlikely to change in 2017″, Rabobank said, citing the quest by investors for yield at a time of low borrowing costs.

“Interest rates are expected to rise only very slowly, keeping investors looking for higher returns,” the bank said, adding that index funds may also “be back in the market toward the second half of next year”.

“The interest in commodity index funds, which offer a hedge against inflation, may be rekindled if fear of inflation reappear,” with Rabobank noting “a few signs”, from the likes of bond market spreads, that the pace of global price rises may “slightly increase” next year.

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cocoa futures news

cocoa futures news

September 9th, 2016

Cocoa futures plunged over 4% on the news that Côte d’Ivoire may cancel, and then remarket 200,000-250,000 tonnes of exports – threatening a round of fresh selling pressure.

Early on Friday, the news hit the market that exporters will have six days to furnish documentation for export contracts, including proof of a counterparty, or their exports will be resold by the state marketing board.

If all contracts are cancelled, that would equal nearly 15% of total Ivorian production last year.

Cocoa Futures: Unhedged exports

According to Reuters, domestic exporters purchased contracts for the 2016-17 season without securing a price with off-takers.

Since the fall in global prices, the exporter now faces heavy losses.

The cancellation of these contracts means that physical supplies which were previously thought sold now have to be remarketed to international buyers.

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cocoa options

cocoa options

April 22nd, 2016

Cocoa futures hit fresh 2016 highs, after Asian grinders reported higher-than-expected volumes.

Asian cocoa grinding was up 2.9% in the first three months to 2016, compared to the same time last year, according to data from the Cocoa Association of Asia (CAA).

Grinding, which is treated as a proxy for consumer demand, came in at at 148,911 tonnes.

This was better than market expectations, which pointed to an increase of around 1%.

Cocoa Futures: No drop in Indonesia

Malaysia, Asia’s second-largest cocoa processor, had already reported an increase in grind of 4%.

But markets were uncertain whether that increase represented a real uptick in demand, or simply a shifting of volumes away from Indonesia, the top-ranked grinder.

Friday’s data release makes it clear that Indonesia also saw rising volumes.

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