cocoa futures news

cocoa futures news

March 24th, 2017

Cocoa is the best bet among soft commodities, Commerzbank said, forecasting price rises – in contrast to somewhat bearish expectations for coffee and, especially, sugar futures.

The bank termed “exaggerated… the slump” in New York cocoa futures which took them to $1,881 a tonne last month – a nine-year low on a spot contract basis, and down 45% from a high set in late 2015.

While acknowledging the “huge rise” in world cocoa output in 2016-17 – backed by estimates of a record crop in top producer Cote d’Ivoire – the bank viewed as overplayed ideas voiced by the International Cocoa Organization last week of global production surpluses for years ahead.

“We are sceptical at the moment that ICCO concerns about a period of structural surpluses on the cocoa market are justified.”

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cocoa futures news

cocoa futures news

February 21st, 2017

Cocoa futures prices plunged to eight-and- a-half year lows last week, on ideas of a substantial glut in the market, thanks to a huge crop in Cote D’Ivoire, the world’s top producer.

But with much of the crop reported to be stuck in lorries, or rotting on the trees, and with farmer incomes squeezed by low prices and slow sales, how long can this market surplus last?

And if cocoa processors step in to buy and the current rock-bottom price, after depleting their butter and powder stocks during a low period of low grinding, will they find the volumes and the quality they expect?

Cocoa Futures: Government programme backfires

Farmers in Cote D’Ivoire are struggling to find buyers for their beans, after a large number of local exporters reneged on contracts.

“What appears to be the root cause is that an attempt by the government to try to improve the position of small exporters has backfired very badly,” explains Edward George, head of commodity research at the pan-African bank Ecobank.

The Ivorian Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) this season increased the share of contracts they gave to small local exporters, allowing them to buy beans locally and sell them onto the international market.

“The CCC wanted to give the smaller exporters a bigger piece of the pie,” Mr George says.

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Cocoa futures best bet among softs

On January 11, 2017, in cocoa futures trading news report, by Infinity Trading
cocoa options

cocoa options

January 11th, 2017

Cocoa looks the best bet among soft commodities for price rises, veteran analyst Judith Ganes Chase said, warning of “somewhat bearish” dynamics in coffee, and cotton prices that are already “too attractive” for growers.

Ms Ganes Chase named cocoa futures – which touched $2,121 a tonne in New York in late December, the lowest for a spot contract since March 2013 – as her “favoured pick” among soft commodities “as a market that has room to climb”.

“The cocoa market remains at low levels relative to the rest of the softs complex and would seem to have fundamentals that are not quite as bearish as market action suggested,” she said.

While acknowledging firm expectations for cocoa output in Ivory Coast, the top producer, saying that “there is no anecdotal evidence to believe the crop will miss production targets”, Ms Ganes Chase flagged potential support to prices from demand.

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cocoa options

cocoa options

December 22nd, 2016

Cocoa speculators have turned net-short on cocoa futures for the first time in years – just as prices are testing major long-term support.

If you’re still looking for last minute gift ideas for that trader on your list, a few shares or contracts in cocoa may do the trick. That’s because the sweet commodity may be well-positioned for a bounce following a 12-month rout. First, let’s look at prices as determined by the iPath Bloomberg Cocoa Subindex Total Return SM Index ETN, ticker, NIB. NIB is presently testing the 27-28 level that represents the fund’s all-time lows set in 2011-2013.

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cocoa options

cocoa options

December 13, 2016

Raw sugar futures fell into bear market territory Tuesday as traders exiting long positions largely looked past a boost to gasoline prices in Brazil.

Raw sugar for March delivery dropped 3.4% to end at 18.60 cents a pound on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange, the lowest close for the most active contract since June 2.

The sugar market is still heavily long, with the bulls outweighing the bears by 174,459 contracts as of last Tuesday, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. At the close, the market was down 22% from its most recent high reached Oct. 5, pushing it into bear market territory.

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cocoa futures news

cocoa futures news

December 9th, 2016

Plummeting cocoa prices could spur demand, with processing margins at their highest level in years, analyst Judith Ganes-Chase said.

Ms Ganes-Chase said market were ‘underestimating’ the scale of current cocoa processing, suggesting the size of this year’s market surplus may less than thought.

Cocoa prices in New York are plumbing their lowest level in over three years, under pressure from the big crop in West Africa.

“More and more observers are expecting to see a sizeable oversupply in the current 2016-17 crop year,” said Commerzbank on Friday.

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cocoa options

cocoa options

December 9th, 2016

Cocoa futures dropped to the lowest level in three-and-a-half years, headed for a sixth session of losses as more predictions of a global surplus hit the market.

Cocoa for March dropped 2.2% to $2,223 a ton on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange, on track for its lowest close since July 10, 2013.

“More and more observers are seeing a sizeable oversupply,” Commerzbank said in a note.

Judith Ganes Chase, president of research firm J. Ganes Consulting, said traders should be cautious about assuming that big crops in cocoa will lead to oversupply. She said she anticipates demand will recover as processing margins improve under lower prices.

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cocoa futures news

cocoa futures news

November 23rd, 2016

Speculators, who have been big players in ag markets such as soybeans and sugar this year, will remain “quite active” in 2017, Rabobank said – naming cocoa as its most bullish bet for next year, and coffee the most bearish.

The appeal of ags to hedge funds “is unlikely to change in 2017″, Rabobank said, citing the quest by investors for yield at a time of low borrowing costs.

“Interest rates are expected to rise only very slowly, keeping investors looking for higher returns,” the bank said, adding that index funds may also “be back in the market toward the second half of next year”.

“The interest in commodity index funds, which offer a hedge against inflation, may be rekindled if fear of inflation reappear,” with Rabobank noting “a few signs”, from the likes of bond market spreads, that the pace of global price rises may “slightly increase” next year.

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cocoa futures news

cocoa futures news

September 9th, 2016

Cocoa futures plunged over 4% on the news that Côte d’Ivoire may cancel, and then remarket 200,000-250,000 tonnes of exports – threatening a round of fresh selling pressure.

Early on Friday, the news hit the market that exporters will have six days to furnish documentation for export contracts, including proof of a counterparty, or their exports will be resold by the state marketing board.

If all contracts are cancelled, that would equal nearly 15% of total Ivorian production last year.

Cocoa Futures: Unhedged exports

According to Reuters, domestic exporters purchased contracts for the 2016-17 season without securing a price with off-takers.

Since the fall in global prices, the exporter now faces heavy losses.

The cancellation of these contracts means that physical supplies which were previously thought sold now have to be remarketed to international buyers.

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cocoa futures news

cocoa futures news

June 1st, 2016

Cocoa plantations in Ghana are “in dire need of rainfall”, thanks to sustained West African dryness which threatening both quality and production in Ivory Coast too, the International Cocoa Organization warned.

The ICCO – expanding on an upgrade late on Tuesday by 67,000 tonnes, to 180,000 tonnes, in its forecast for the world cocoa production deficit in 2016-17 – said that the revision reflected largely weaker harvest prospects in West Africa, which is responsible for more than 70% of global output.

“Extreme weather conditions, resulting from the severe Harmattan winds within the West African region, combined with the impact of El Niño, have negatively affected the 2015-16 harvests,” the ICCO said.

In Ivory Coast, the Harmattan – a hot and dry wind blowing in from the Sahara, and which has a history of hurting cocoa yields – is said “to be among the strongest in three decades”.

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