cocoa futures news

cocoa futures news

March 24th, 2017

Cocoa is the best bet among soft commodities, Commerzbank said, forecasting price rises – in contrast to somewhat bearish expectations for coffee and, especially, sugar futures.

The bank termed “exaggerated… the slump” in New York cocoa futures which took them to $1,881 a tonne last month – a nine-year low on a spot contract basis, and down 45% from a high set in late 2015.

While acknowledging the “huge rise” in world cocoa output in 2016-17 – backed by estimates of a record crop in top producer Cote d’Ivoire – the bank viewed as overplayed ideas voiced by the International Cocoa Organization last week of global production surpluses for years ahead.

“We are sceptical at the moment that ICCO concerns about a period of structural surpluses on the cocoa market are justified.”

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cocoa futures news

cocoa futures news

February 21st, 2017

Cocoa futures prices plunged to eight-and- a-half year lows last week, on ideas of a substantial glut in the market, thanks to a huge crop in Cote D’Ivoire, the world’s top producer.

But with much of the crop reported to be stuck in lorries, or rotting on the trees, and with farmer incomes squeezed by low prices and slow sales, how long can this market surplus last?

And if cocoa processors step in to buy and the current rock-bottom price, after depleting their butter and powder stocks during a low period of low grinding, will they find the volumes and the quality they expect?

Cocoa Futures: Government programme backfires

Farmers in Cote D’Ivoire are struggling to find buyers for their beans, after a large number of local exporters reneged on contracts.

“What appears to be the root cause is that an attempt by the government to try to improve the position of small exporters has backfired very badly,” explains Edward George, head of commodity research at the pan-African bank Ecobank.

The Ivorian Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) this season increased the share of contracts they gave to small local exporters, allowing them to buy beans locally and sell them onto the international market.

“The CCC wanted to give the smaller exporters a bigger piece of the pie,” Mr George says.

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cocoa options

cocoa options

February 7th, 2017

Cocoa prices should regain some ground by the end of 2017 following a prolonged slide fueled by expectations for a global surplus in the current 2016/17 season, a Reuters poll of nine traders and analysts showed on Tuesday.

The survey’s median forecast for New York cocoa futures prices at the end of the year was $2,400 a tonne, up 17 percent from Monday’s close.

London cocoa futures were also seen rising, with a median forecast of 1,880 pounds a tonne for the end of 2017, up 12 percent from Monday’s close.

Supportive factors included a potential pick-up in demand later this year, the prospect of lower farmer prices helping to curb production and concerns there could be further unrest in top producer Ivory Coast.

“We expect some pick up in demand towards the middle of the calendar year due to lower prices,” said Carlos Mera, senior commodity analyst at Rabobank.

New York cocoa futures fell by 33 percent in 2016, the biggest annual loss since 1999, and have fallen a further 4 percent so far this year.

The decline was driven partly by an anticipated swing from a global deficit in the 2015/16 season (October/September) to an expected surplus in 2016/17.

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Cocoa futures best bet among softs

On January 11, 2017, in cocoa futures trading news report, by Infinity Trading
cocoa options

cocoa options

January 11th, 2017

Cocoa looks the best bet among soft commodities for price rises, veteran analyst Judith Ganes Chase said, warning of “somewhat bearish” dynamics in coffee, and cotton prices that are already “too attractive” for growers.

Ms Ganes Chase named cocoa futures – which touched $2,121 a tonne in New York in late December, the lowest for a spot contract since March 2013 – as her “favoured pick” among soft commodities “as a market that has room to climb”.

“The cocoa market remains at low levels relative to the rest of the softs complex and would seem to have fundamentals that are not quite as bearish as market action suggested,” she said.

While acknowledging firm expectations for cocoa output in Ivory Coast, the top producer, saying that “there is no anecdotal evidence to believe the crop will miss production targets”, Ms Ganes Chase flagged potential support to prices from demand.

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cocoa options

cocoa options

December 22nd, 2016

Cocoa speculators have turned net-short on cocoa futures for the first time in years – just as prices are testing major long-term support.

If you’re still looking for last minute gift ideas for that trader on your list, a few shares or contracts in cocoa may do the trick. That’s because the sweet commodity may be well-positioned for a bounce following a 12-month rout. First, let’s look at prices as determined by the iPath Bloomberg Cocoa Subindex Total Return SM Index ETN, ticker, NIB. NIB is presently testing the 27-28 level that represents the fund’s all-time lows set in 2011-2013.

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Cocoa Futures Market Attempts Rally

On December 12, 2016, in cocoa futures trading news report, by Infinity Trading
cocoa options

cocoa options

December 12th, 2016

Cocoa was on track to have its first day of gains in seven sessions Monday as traders reentered the market to snatch up futures at cheaper levels.

Cocoa for March delivery rose 2.5% to $2,225 a ton on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange, bouncing off a three-and-a-half year low reached Friday.

As of last Tuesday, hedge funds and other money managers were the least bullish they’ve been about the cocoa market since July 24, 2012, with the bulls outweighing the bears by 4,908 contracts, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Analysts say the cocoa market is moving from a production surplus to a production deficit year with higher prices for farmers in West Africa helping to driving production at the same time that weather conditions have improved for developing crops.

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cocoa options

cocoa options

December 9th, 2016

Cocoa futures dropped to the lowest level in three-and-a-half years, headed for a sixth session of losses as more predictions of a global surplus hit the market.

Cocoa for March dropped 2.2% to $2,223 a ton on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange, on track for its lowest close since July 10, 2013.

“More and more observers are seeing a sizeable oversupply,” Commerzbank said in a note.

Judith Ganes Chase, president of research firm J. Ganes Consulting, said traders should be cautious about assuming that big crops in cocoa will lead to oversupply. She said she anticipates demand will recover as processing margins improve under lower prices.

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cocoa futures news

cocoa futures news

September 9th, 2016

Cocoa futures plunged over 4% on the news that Côte d’Ivoire may cancel, and then remarket 200,000-250,000 tonnes of exports – threatening a round of fresh selling pressure.

Early on Friday, the news hit the market that exporters will have six days to furnish documentation for export contracts, including proof of a counterparty, or their exports will be resold by the state marketing board.

If all contracts are cancelled, that would equal nearly 15% of total Ivorian production last year.

Cocoa Futures: Unhedged exports

According to Reuters, domestic exporters purchased contracts for the 2016-17 season without securing a price with off-takers.

Since the fall in global prices, the exporter now faces heavy losses.

The cancellation of these contracts means that physical supplies which were previously thought sold now have to be remarketed to international buyers.

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cocoa options

cocoa options

April 22nd, 2016

Cocoa futures hit fresh 2016 highs, after Asian grinders reported higher-than-expected volumes.

Asian cocoa grinding was up 2.9% in the first three months to 2016, compared to the same time last year, according to data from the Cocoa Association of Asia (CAA).

Grinding, which is treated as a proxy for consumer demand, came in at at 148,911 tonnes.

This was better than market expectations, which pointed to an increase of around 1%.

Cocoa Futures: No drop in Indonesia

Malaysia, Asia’s second-largest cocoa processor, had already reported an increase in grind of 4%.

But markets were uncertain whether that increase represented a real uptick in demand, or simply a shifting of volumes away from Indonesia, the top-ranked grinder.

Friday’s data release makes it clear that Indonesia also saw rising volumes.

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cocoa futures brokers

cocoa futures brokers

February 25, 2016

Cocoa prices rose Thursday as traders expected recent dry weather to slash production for the upcoming West African smaller midcrop.

Cocoa for May was up 1.3%, at $2,963 a ton, on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange.

In a note, trading firm Cocoanect, based in Rotterdam, Netherlands, said it expects the stunted beans coming out of the tail end of the main cocoa harvest to foretell losses for the upcoming midcrop because of a lack of rain and seasonal winds in the growing areas.

The firm also said, however, that cocoa beans from the main harvest–which is now winding down–are arriving at ports in Ivory Coast, the crop’s largest grower, at the same rate as last year and purchases are ahead by 100,000 metric tons in Ghana, the world’s second largest grower. Traders had expected the dry weather to hurt the main crop, the firm said.

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