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Cocoa premium soars
May 13th, 2013
Cocoa Futures – The premium cocoa for May delivery commands over the July futures tripled on speculation supplies in Europe will be limited before the May contract expires.
Cocoa for May delivery was 42 pounds ($54.53) a ton more expensive than the July futures by 12:58 p.m. in London on NYSE Liffe, up from 13 pounds on May 10 and compared with a discount on May 8. The May contract ends trading on May 15 and the delivery will be the next day.
“The spread should stay firm until the last trading day on speculation of limited supplies in European warehouses,” Jerome Jourquin, head of agricultural commodity derivatives at Aurel BGC in Paris, said by e-mail today.
Prices for near-dated contracts that are higher than later ones is a market situation known as backwardation and may signal limited supplies. The May contract rose 27 pounds and the July contract was down 1 pound.
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coffee futures rise
May 2nd, 2013
Coffee futures robusta rebounded in London on speculation exchange data due later today will show stockpiles declined as beans from producing countries are trading at a premium. Sugar fell and cocoa swung between gains and losses.
Robusta inventories with a valid grading certificate in warehouses monitored by NYSE Liffe were 126,250 metric tons on April 15. The exchange data is due today and may show that inventories dropped in the two weeks to April 29. Coffee from Vietnam, the world’s top producer of the robusta variety, and third-ranking Indonesia was trading at a premium of $90 a ton to NYSE Liffe last week, according to Volcafe, the Winterthur, Switzerland-based unit of ED&F Man Holdings Ltd.
“There’s speculation that certified stocks have been sold to the industry,” Jerome Jourquin, head of agricultural commodity derivatives at Aurel BGC in Paris, said by e-mail today, referring to coffee roasters.
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cocoa futures rebound
April 23rd, 2013
Cocoa futures rebounded in London on speculation producing nations in West Africa, the main growing region, have sold a lot of their crops, removing some hedging pressure from futures markets. Coffee and sugar slid.
Producing countries may have sold up to 250,000 metric tons of cocoa in the past 10 to 15 days, according to London-based futures and options brokerage Marex Spectron Group. Prices fell as much as 1.3 percent in London yesterday as money managers boosted bets on higher prices to this year’s high in the week ended April 16, leaving the market vulnerable to liquidation.
“Cocoa collapsed yesterday because speculators bought more -mostly covering shorts- than initially thought,” Eric Sivry, head of agriculture options brokerage at Marex Spectron, said by e-mail today. “With origins having sold a lot recently, selling pressure has been slightly removed.”
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cocoa futures move higher
April 19th, 2013
Cocoa futures, already headed for their biggest monthly gain since August, probably will advance further to the highest since early December, according to a technical analysis by John Caruso at RJO Futures.
Cocoa prices on ICE Futures U.S. in New York are sending bullish signals after surging above the 50-day moving average of $2,149 a metric ton on April 8 and then the 100-day average of $2,246 three days later, Caruso said. Today, after advancing to $2,348, the highest for a most-active contract since Dec. 21, cocoa is above the 200-day moving average of $2,331.
“We need to close above the $2,331 level,” Caruso, a senior broker with Chicago-based RJO, said in a telephone interview. “If we do that, this market could press on toward the $2,450 and $2,550 area before September. If the price fails to close above $2,331, we will probably see a consolidation phase between $2,260 and $2,330 before another push to the upside.”
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April 5th, 2013
Cocoa futures fell for a third day in London on speculation rain is helping boost crop prospects in Ivory Coast, the world’s largest grower. Sugar also declined.
The Daloa region, which accounts for about a third of Ivory Coast production, had three times more rain from March 21-31 than a year earlier, according to the National Meteorological Service. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities is down 3.3 percent this week, heading for the biggest weekly decline since October.
“There was some concern dry weather would have a negative effect in Ivory Coast so the rain may be easing those concerns,” said Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, by phone today. “Cocoa is getting caught up with selling of many commodities.”
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March 28th, 2013
Cocoa futures climbed for a third day in London and New York, and the gains may be capped as Ghana still has to sell more beans. Robusta coffee fell for a fifth day.
Cocoa has climbed the past three days on buying by speculators because the market is “still considered tight,” Kona Haque, an analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd. in London. Cocoa demand may be equal to or slightly above production this season, she said.
“Every time the market tries to rally we get into Ghana selling,” Haque said by phone today. “Speculators are pushing the market higher.”
Cocoa futures for May delivery climbed 0.6 percent in New York to $2,162 a metric ton by 7:41 a.m. on ICE Futures U.S. Prices are down 3.3 percent in New York this year and up 1.7 percent in London. Beans trade in pounds in London and dollars in New York.
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coffee futures gain
March 20th, 2013
Coffee Futures – Coffee roasters are poised to add more arabica beans to their blends at the expense of robusta as the two varieties’ relative cost narrows to a four-year low.
The gap between futures declined to 35.4 cents yesterday from $1.89 in May 2011. The switch takes several months and probably will start if the spread stays at 35 cents, said Rodrigo Costa, director of trading at Caturra Coffee Corp. in Elmsford, New York. Arabica will average $1.57 in the fourth quarter, 18 percent more than now, as robusta drops 3.6 percent to $2,075 a metric ton (94 cents a pound), the medians of as many as six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg show.
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coffee futures climb
March 20th, 2013
Coffee Futures – Arabica coffee climbed for the first time in eight days in New York on speculation roasters may add more of the beans favored by Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) to blends. Sugar and cocoa also rose.
Arabica futures touched $1.3255 a pound yesterday, the lowest since June 2010. The commodity lost 37 percent last year, making it the worst performer in the Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 raw materials. Robusta beans, used in instant coffee, climbed 12 percent this year after advancing 6.3 percent in 2012. The premium arabica commands over robusta slid to 35.4 cents a pound yesterday, the lowest since December 2008. That may attract roasters to arabica beans.
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March 12th, 2013
Cocoa futures climbed to a three- week high on signs of reduced deliveries by farmers in Ivory Coast, the world’s biggest producer. Orange juice and cotton also gained, while coffee slid. Sugar was unchanged.
Purchases of cocoa beans by the Ivory Coast government fell 7.5 percent in the first three months of the season that began in October, according to a document sent to Bloomberg by an official in the ministries of finance and agriculture. Deliveries to ports from farms slid to 649,249 metric tons, compared with 702,127 tons a year earlier, the data show.
“This should allow prices to work higher as there will be less cocoa on the market,” Sterling Smith, a futures specialist at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in Chicago, said in an e-mail. Supplies in the Ivory Coast are getting tighter, and some beans have poor quality, Smith said.
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March 11th, 2013
Coffee Futures – The coffee harvest in Vietnam, the biggest grower of robusta beans used by Nestle SA (NESN) in instant drinks, may decline for second year because of drought in the main growing regions, according to a producers’ group.
Output may drop 30 percent in 2013-2014, Luong Van Tu, chairman of the Vietnam Coffee & Cocoa Association, or Vicofa, said yesterday, without giving a specific forecast. Production fell 25 percent in 2012-2013 from 1.5 million tons a year earlier, he said. A Bloomberg survey published on March 7 estimated the 2012-2013 crop at 1.43 million tons.
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