commodity investing 101

commodity investing 101

January 3rd, 2017

Hedge funds approached the end of 2016 on a bearish note in agricultural commodities, cutting bets on price rises for a fourth successive week, as they stretched to a record a selling spree in softs such as cocoa and coffee.

Managed money, a proxy for speculators, cut its net long position in futures and options in the top 13 US-traded agricultural commodities, from corn to sugar, by 37,457 contracts in the week to last Tuesday, analysis of data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulator shows.

The selldown reduced the net long – the extent to which long bets, which profit when values rise, exceed short holdings, which benefit when prices fall – to the lowest in two months.

And it included bearish positioning in both grains, in which hedge funds returned to a net short position, as well as in New York-traded soft commodities, which also include cotton and sugar.

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sugar futures brokers

sugar futures brokers

October 26th, 2015

Morgan Stanley restated an upbeat call on corn, soyoil and sugar, based largely on expectations for importer demand, despite the revival in the dollar which will make the commodities more expensive for buyers in other currencies.

The bank acknowledged that, for corn, “near-term weakness” in US export sales may be “exacerbated” by the latest revival in the dollar, spurred by Chinese and eurozone monetary policy moves last week.

US export commitments for corn had, as of October 15, reached 11.88m tonnes for 2015-16, a drop of 35% year on year, according to US Department of Agriculture data.

However, market weakness would not last for ever, with the prospect of a decline in Brazilian shipments to send demand back the way of the US.

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ethanol brokers

ethanol futures tumble

August 6th,2012

Ethanol futures fell in Chicago as rain and cooler weather in the U.S. Midwest provided some relief to drought-withered corn crops.

Ethanol tumbled after rain over the weekend improved the prospects for corn, the primary ingredient used to produce ethanol in the U.S. Distillers have responded to higher corn prices brought about by drought by cutting output by 16 percent to 809,000 barrels a day from a record 963,000 on Dec. 30.

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mini yen futures

Yen futures fall against Euro

August 7th, 2012

Euro Futures – The euro rose against the yen and dollar after Germany backed European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s proposals to stem the region’s debt crisis.

The shared currency gained versus most of its 16 major counterparts as a report showed Italy’s economy shrank less than economists predicted. Euro gains were supported as the European Union said it had received no requests for the region’s rescue fund to buy government bonds. Norway’s krone climbed after manufacturing increased.

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mini dow futures

Dow Jones Futures Rise

August 7th, 2012

Dow Jones Futures – U.S. stock futures advanced, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will rally for a third day, amid better-than-estimated corporate earnings and speculation global central banks will act to boost growth.

CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS), the largest provider of prescription drugs in the U.S., climbed 2.7 percent as profit beat analysts’ projections. Chesapeake (CHK) Energy Corp., the second-largest U.S. natural-gas producer, increased 5.3 percent after reporting the highest quarterly profit in the company’s history. Sirius (SIRI) XM Radio Inc., the largest U.S. satellite-radio company, gained 2.3 percent after boosting its annual profit forecast.

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heating oil options

heating oil gains

August 3rd, 2012

Heating oil futures and gasoline gained as U.S. payrolls rose more than estimated in July and a sagging dollar boosted the investment appeal of commodities.

Gasoline futures rose after payrolls climbed 163,000, more than the 100,000 median estimate of 89 analysts in a survey by Bloomberg. The dollar fell against the euro after members of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition signaled they won’t oppose European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s plan to buy government bonds to ease the region’s debt crisis.

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gasoline charts

Gasoline and oil gain

August 3rd, 2012

Gasoline futures and heating oil gained as U.S. payrolls rose more than estimated in July and a sagging dollar boosted the investment appeal of commodities.

Gasoline futures rose after payrolls climbed 163,000, more than the 100,000 median estimate of 89 analysts in a survey by Bloomberg. The dollar fell against the euro after members of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition signaled they won’t oppose European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s plan to buy government bonds to ease the region’s debt crisis.

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August 3rd, 2012

Crude oil surged the most in a month after U.S. payrolls climbed more than estimated and service industries expanded at a faster pace, bolstering optimism about economic strength in the world’s biggest crude-consuming country.

Crude oil futures rose 4.9 percent as payrolls gained 163,000 in July, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index unexpectedly gained. Tropical Storm Ernesto may grow into a hurricane this weekend, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

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August 3rd, 2012

Commodity Investing – Corn and soybean traders are bullish for a 15th consecutive week on speculation that the drought spreading across fields in the U.S. will spur the government to make more cuts to its production forecasts.

Fourteen analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predicted soybeans will climb next week and a further seven were bearish. Twelve expect gains in corn, six saw a decline and three anticipated little change. Hedge funds are holding the biggest bet on higher corn prices since September and almost the largest wager on costlier soybeans since at least 2006, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show.

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July 26th, 2012

Managed Futures -Longboard Asset Management has announced the launch of the Longboard Managed Futures Strategy Fund (WAVIX), an investment product offering our managed futures strategy in a mutual fund package. Unlike the fund of funds structure, our goal is to offer direct access to portfolio manager talent at relatively lower costs and with greater transparency when compared to fund of funds or private placement opportunities.

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