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Copper futures in London rolled gains into a fourth straight day on Friday, buoyed by growing expectations of further stimulus action from both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.
Dollar-denominated copper prices received an additional boost from the euro, which rallied to a three-week peak against the greenback after French President Francois Hollande and his German counterpart, Angela Merkel, said they were determined to do all they can to safeguard the euro. <USD/>
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Copper futures rose for the first time in three sessions on speculation that China will take more steps to spur its economy, bolstering the outlook for metals demand.
Chinese officials will intensify their response to a slowdown in the country’s economy, Premier Wen Jiabao said. He spoke as government figures showed inflation reached a 29-month low. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said copper usage probably will keep climbing in the Asian nation, the world’s top metals consumer.
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Copper futures fell Wednesday on disappointment over the Federal Reserve’s modest accommodative measures and concerns about the central bank’s downbeat economic outlook.
The most actively traded contract, for July delivery, settled 4.60 cents, or 1.3%, lower at $3.3875 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Copper futures retreated as investors who had hoped to see aggressive stimulus action were disappointed by the Fed. The central bank extended what is known as the “Operation Twist” program aimed at lowering long-term interest rates and encouraging borrowing and investment, which was set to expire in June.
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Copper Futures – Copper traders are the most bullish in three months as China, the biggest buyer, reduced interest rates to bolster growth, increasing expectations that prices will rebound from the longest slump in two years.
Sixteen analysts surveyed by Bloomberg said they expect prices to gain next week and seven were bearish. A further eight were neutral, making the proportion of bulls the highest since March 9. Stockpiles in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange, the world’s largest metals bourse, declined 38 percent this year and Morgan Stanley is predicting at least another year of supply shortages.
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Commodity Investing – Commodities extended their decline, falling to the lowest level in almost eight months, after U.S. employers created fewer jobs than economists estimated and Chinese manufacturing slowed.
The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index fell 2.6 percent to 580.99 in New York, the lowest settlement since Oct. 4. The index declined 6.4 percent this week, a fifth straight drop and the biggest since September. Wheat, heating oil, cotton and gasoline led the losses.
U.S. payrolls climbed by 69,000 last month, below the most pessimistic forecast in a Bloomberg News survey, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 50.4 in May from 53.3 in April, China’s statistics bureau and logistics federation said today in Beijing. Euro area and U.K. manufacturing contracted.
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Copper traders are the most bearish since September and hedge funds are betting on price declines as concern that Europe’s debt crisis is deepening drove the metal to the lowest this year.
Eighteen of 33 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect the metal to drop next week and six were neutral, the highest proportion since Sept. 23. Fund managers and other speculators held a net short position of 2,808 U.S. futures and options in the week ended May 22, from net-long holdings of 4,833 a week earlier, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. That’s the first bearish bet since January.
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Copper futures fell for a second day in New York on concern the euro-area debt crisis may threaten economic expansion in China, the world’s biggest consumer of the metal.
The Chinese economy may have the worst growth in more than two decades if Greece abandons the euro, economists at investment bank China International Capital Corp. said in an e- mailed report today. The Asian country’s growth will slow to 8.2 percent this year from 9.2 percent in 2011, the World Bank said.
“There are plenty of things to worry about,” Jesper Dannesboe, an analyst at Societe Generale SA in London, said by phone today. “It doesn’t seem quite right to say we’ve hit the bottom yet.”
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