commodity investing 101

commodity investing 101

June 9th, 2017

Grain prices struggled to hold their ground as concerns over 100-degree temperatures in the US clashed with forecasts from a much-watched report showing bigger-than-expected stocks of corn, soybeans and wheat ahead.

The US Department of Agriculture, in its much-watched monthly Wasde briefing on world crop supply and demand, raised its estimate for world and US corn and soybean inventories at the close of 2017-18 by more than had been expected.

And while the estimate for US corn stocks was left unchanged, that defied expectations of a decline, although the forecast for world inventories of the grain did fall below the figure the market had expected.

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corn futures quotes

corn futures quotes

September 11th, 2015

Corn futures made headway, dragging wheat higher, after the US forecast a deeper-than-expected drop in its inventories of the grain this season, and lifted expectation for farm prices.

But soybean futures tumbled to a six-year low, after the US Department of Agriculture, in its monthly Wasde crop report, made an unexpected upgrade to expectations for the domestic harvest of the oilseed this year, citing record yield prospects some major western Corn Belt producing states.

Corn futures for December gained 2.5% at one stage, taking the, to a three-week high of $3.83 ¾ a bushel, after the USDA cut its forecast for domestic stocks at the close of 2015-16 by 125m bushels to 1.59bn bushels, nearly twice the downgrade that investors had expected.

The extent of the cut reflected in part a drain in stocks last season from more consumption, both domestically and through exports, than had been previously forecast.

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corn futures quotes

corn futures quotes

June 9th, 2015

Soybeans followed corn in attracting concerns that US farmers might not complete sowings programmes after official data showed seedings falling behind the average rate, with marked shortfalls in some states.

Data overnight from the US Department of Agriculture showed the strong start to the country’s soy sowing season had foundered, with plantings, at 79% complete, 2 points behind the average.

A month before, sowing were, at 31%, 11 points ahead of the typical pace.

The slowdown reflected in particular setbacks in a central Midwest growing belt of Nebraska and, in particular, Kansas and Missouri where heavy rains have slowed fieldwork to a crawl.

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iwheat-1May 11th, 2015

Grain, oilseed and cotton markets have lots of big questions as they stand on the threshold of their respective 2015-16 marketing years.

How much corn will trouble-hit Ukraine export? How much wheat will Europe produce? Will Brazil rise back above the US again in the soybean export league?

And Tuesday will bring answers too all these questions, and more.

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Chicago board of trade

Chicago board of trade

April 30th, 2015

Month-ends, by repute, bring lower grain prices, as funds sell-up withdraw cash to pay bonuses and customers.

But with hedge funds record net short, or so, in grains, as they were in the latest regulatory data, will that mean a nuance on that dynamic?

They might, after all, be tempted to raise money by taking profits on some of their short positions instead – sending prices higher in the process.

Certainly, grain futures traded a touch higher again in early deals on Thursday, despite expectations of ideal US sowings conditions, for now.

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corn futures brokers

corn futures brokers

September 17th, 2014

Corn futures fell for the first time this week in Chicago as farmers in the U.S., the world’s top grower, begin harvesting what’s expected to be the largest crop on record. Wheat also dropped.

Four percent of corn in the main U.S. growing area was harvested as of Sept. 14, in line with last year’s pace, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said two days ago. Farmers may collect 14.395 billion bushels this season, the most ever, the agency said last week. Futures have tumbled 19 percent this year. Frost in parts of the Midwest last weekend probably didn’t cause significant damage, and the region should experience a warming trend this week, forecaster DTN said today.

“The weather remains nearly perfect,” economist Dennis Gartman wrote in his daily Gartman Letter. “The harvest that is beginning in the South can and will be sped along.”

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corn futures options

corn futures options

September 2nd, 2014

Corn futures advanced amid concern that an escalation of tensions between Ukraine and Russia may affect grain shipments from the Black Sea region.

Ukraine warned of worsening conflict in its east, with Defense Minister Valeriy Geletey writing on Facebook that the country’s army will take on Russia’s “full-scale invasion.” Ukraine was the world’s third-biggest corn exporter in 2013-14, data from the International Grains Council show.

“The weight of fundamentals for the time being is offset by the situation in Ukraine, with the main concerns focused on the difficulty of logistics in an atmosphere of war in the country’s east,” Paris-based farm adviser Agritel wrote. “For now loading in the Black Sea region nevertheless continues at a very sustained pace.”

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Corn Rises Amid Ethanol Lift

On August 21, 2014, in Corn Futures News Report, by Infinity Trading
corn futures brokers

corn futures brokers

August 21st, 2014

Corn futures advanced following a report that showed rising production of ethanol, a fuel made from the grain, as wheat and soybeans rose ahead of the U.S. government’s weekly export sales report due later today.

U.S. ethanol output rose 0.6 percent to 937,000 barrels a day last week from 931,000 barrels a day in the prior period, the Energy Information Administration reported yesterday.

“Ethanol outpaces last week,” Paul Georgy, the president of Allendale Inc., wrote in a daily comment. “Cheaper corn prices are supporting excellent profit margins.”

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corn futures options

corn futures options

July 16th, 2014

Corn and wheat futures rose in Chicago amid speculation of buying interest from animal-feed makers and investors after grain prices fell to four-year lows this week.

Corn futures have slumped 25 percent in the past 12 months while wheat fell 19 percent amid expectations for bumper crops to boost supply. World grain stocks will rise to a 15-year high by the end of the 2014-15 season as production of both crops outpaces demand, the International Grains Council forecasts.

“We’ve come to a level where it’s starting to be interesting for buyers,” Arnaud Saulais, a broker at Starsupply Commodity Brokers in Nyon, Switzerland, said by phone. “There’s a bit of buyer interest at this moment. It’s always hard to say whether it will resist harvest pressure.”

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corn options

corn options

June 26th, 2014

Iowa farmer Julius Schaaf isn’t waiting for his corn to grow kernels before he sells this year. As last season’s record harvest spurs bulging inventories, he’s playing it safe, even as most growers hold onto their grain.

“We had perfect planting conditions, and everything is in place to produce a big crop,” said Schaaf, 61, who has already sold 70 percent of the grain he plans to produce on 3,800 acres of corn and soybeans near Randolph, Iowa. That compares with the 25 percent he would normally have sold by this time of year. “I feel pretty good with my hedge positions, because it is evident that prices will take a downturn. With above-average yields, it will be close to break-even.”

A bumper harvest in 2013 means stockpiles in the U.S., the world’s biggest grower, are rising at the fastest pace in nine years, according to traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Ample rains and warm weather boosted early crop development for this season and allowed farmers to plant more than the government estimated in March, a separate survey showed. Prices will fall about 9.5 percent in six months, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecasts.

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