live cattle futures

live cattle futures

April 16th, 2018

While winter lingers in the upper Midwest, ranchers in the U.S. central plains are dealing with relentless drought, forcing some ranchers to send livestock to feedlots earlier. We’ll see this Friday how many more head are at feed yards when USDA releases the monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Cattle futures have been sliding as market watchers expect a landslide of meat in the coming months. Severe drought is parching the U.S. Plains, and ranchers have had no choice but to send their animals to yards where they’re fattened up for market with grains. That speeds up the growing process and means the animals will go to market earlier than usual.

“It’s a shockingly weak market,” said Dennis Smith, a senior account executive at Archer Financial Services Inc. in Chicago. Traders can expect “a bulge in production that’s going to happen in the second and third quarter,” he said.

Extreme and exceptional drought has spread across Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Colorado, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor in Lincoln, Nebraska. It’s been that way for around six months, and doesn’t show signs of improving.

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natural gas futures news

natural gas futures news

April 23rd, 2018

Natural gas futures started the week in negative territory on Monday, amid speculation the start of spring will bring warmer temperatures throughout the U.S. and cut into demand for the fuel.

Front-month U.S. natural gas futures slumped 1.9 cents, or around 0.7%, to $2.748 per million British thermal units (btu) by 9:00AM ET (1300GMT).

The commodity notched its second straight weekly gain, with futures rising about 0.2% last week, thanks to lingering winter-like weather conditions, which has delayed the official start of the storage injection season.

Despite recent gains, market experts warned that futures are likely to remain vulnerable in the near-term as below-normal temperatures in April mean less than they do in January and February.

Spring usually sees the weakest demand for natural gas in the U.S, as the absence of extreme temperatures curbs demand for heating and air conditioning.

Meanwhile, market participants looked ahead to this week’s storage data due on Thursday, which is expected to show another draw in a range between 3 and 17 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ended April 20.

That compares with a decline of 36 bcf in the preceding week, an increase of 74 bcf a year earlier and a five-year average rise of 60 bcf.

Total natural gas in storage currently stands at 1.299 trillion cubic feet (tcf), according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

That figure is 808 bcf, or around 38.3%, lower than levels at this time a year ago, and 449 bcf, or roughly 25.7%, below the five-year average for this time of year.

Record high domestic production levels have overshadowed the fact that stocks in storage are well below their seasonal averages for this time of year.


orange juice futures

orange juice futures

November 27th, 2017

“Market will tighten again in 2018-19 and approach record-low stock levels” with “higher prices likely” in long term following hurricane damage to Florida groves and dry conditions in Brazil expected, Andres Padilla, beverage analyst at Rabobank in Sao Paulo, says in report.

* Brazil’s 2018-19 juice output may drop 21% to 950,000 tons y/y
* In Florida, damage from Hurricane Irma “could be long lasting, reaching beyond the immediately increased fruit droppage in 2017-18”
* Juice output may drop to 235,000 tons in 2017-18 and 250,000 in 2018-19, down from 390,000 in 2016-17
* Prices may rise even as demand will continue declining this year and next at ~4% in volume; Europe’s use seen ebbing at slower rate than U.S.
* In 2018-19, global juice supply is set to drop 15% to 1.6m tons y/y; balance may shift to deficit of 80,000 tons from surplus of same amount

- Marvin G. Perez Bloomberg.


gold futures blog

gold futures blog

November 21st, 2017

Gold prices held onto gains on Tuesday, as sentiment on the U.S. dollar remained fragile amid ongoing uncertainty over the fate of a U.S. tax bill and ahead of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting due on Wednesday.

Comex gold futures were up $3.47 or about 0.27% at $1,278.78 a troy ounce by 08:15 a.m. ET (12:15 GMT).

The House of Representatives passed a bill last week that would lower corporate taxes and cut individual taxes for most households in 2018.

However the legislation could still face difficulties in the Senate amid resistance within Republican ranks. Senate lawmakers are expected to vote on their version of the bill after this week’s Thanksgiving holiday.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was steady at 94.01.

Gold is sensitive to moves in the dollar. A weaker dollar makes gold less expensive for holders of foreign currency.

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gold futures

gold futures

November 17th, 2017

Gold prices rose sharply on Friday amid an uptick in geopolitical uncertainty after North Korea ruled out negotiations with Washington on curbing its nuclear weapons programme.

Gold futures for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $14.77, or 1.15%, to $1292.88 a troy ounce.

“As long as there is continuous hostile policy against my country [North Korea] by the U.S. and as long as there are continued war games at our doorstep, then there will not be negotiations,” North Korea’s US ambassador Han Tae Song said.

That fuelled geopolitical uncertainty, raising demand for safe-haven gold as market participants feared that North Korea could retaliate should Washington respond with new sanctions on the isolated nation.

In the U.S., political uncertainty weighed on treasury yields and the dollar, underpinning a move higher in gold prices after reports surfaced that Special Counsel Robert Mueller was set to issue fresh subpoenas for the Trump campaign as part of investigation into alleged Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. election.

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Sugar futures hit 5-1/2 month high

On November 16, 2017, in sugar futures trading news report, by Infinity Trading
sugar futures brokers

sugar futures brokers

November 14th, 2017

Sugar futures raw on ICE edged up to equal the prior session’s 5-1/2 month high on Tuesday as funds scaled back short positions, although the rise was slowed by producer selling.

* March raw sugar was up 0.03 cents, or 0.2 percent, at 15.16 cents per lb by 1210 GMT after equalling Monday’s 5-1/2 month peak for the front month of 15.18 cents.

* Dealers said the recent run-up in prices has been driven partly by a rise in energy prices which is leading to a switch in Brazil to using more cane to produce ethanol at the expense of sugar.

* Dealers said the switch would curb sugar production in Brazil and reduce the size of a widely anticipated global surplus in the 2017/18 season.

* “We are not talking about the disappearance of the surplus but we are talking about a reduction (in its size),” one London dealer said.

* Dealers said the market was, however, struggling to overcome resistance around the March contract’s peak in September of 15.20 cents and a break above that level could trigger a fresh wave of fund short covering.

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commodity investing 101

commodity investing 101

June 9th, 2017

Grain prices struggled to hold their ground as concerns over 100-degree temperatures in the US clashed with forecasts from a much-watched report showing bigger-than-expected stocks of corn, soybeans and wheat ahead.

The US Department of Agriculture, in its much-watched monthly Wasde briefing on world crop supply and demand, raised its estimate for world and US corn and soybean inventories at the close of 2017-18 by more than had been expected.

And while the estimate for US corn stocks was left unchanged, that defied expectations of a decline, although the forecast for world inventories of the grain did fall below the figure the market had expected.

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cocoa futures news

cocoa futures news

January 6th, 2017

Cocoa futures prices rose on Friday as disgruntled soldiers seized control of the second largest city in the world’s top grower Ivory Coast, prompting a wave of short covering, though the New York market turned lower along with the weak British pound.

Sugar and coffee futures eased.

March London cocoa settled up 12 pounds, or 0.7 percent, at 1,821 pounds per tonne, after surging 2.2 percent to a two-week high at 1,848 pounds following the reports from Ivory Coast.

Unrest in Ivory Coast appeared to be spreading with reports that gunfire had erupted in the western cocoa growing region of Daloa, hours after soldiers demanding salary increases seized the second largest city, Bouake.

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commodity investing 101

commodity investing 101

January 3rd, 2017

Hedge funds approached the end of 2016 on a bearish note in agricultural commodities, cutting bets on price rises for a fourth successive week, as they stretched to a record a selling spree in softs such as cocoa and coffee.

Managed money, a proxy for speculators, cut its net long position in futures and options in the top 13 US-traded agricultural commodities, from corn to sugar, by 37,457 contracts in the week to last Tuesday, analysis of data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulator shows.

The selldown reduced the net long – the extent to which long bets, which profit when values rise, exceed short holdings, which benefit when prices fall – to the lowest in two months.

And it included bearish positioning in both grains, in which hedge funds returned to a net short position, as well as in New York-traded soft commodities, which also include cotton and sugar.

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crude oil futures news

crude oil futures news

June 24th, 2016

Crude oil futures prices slumped by more than 6 percent on Friday after Britain voted to leave the European Union, raising fears of a broader economic slowdown that could reduce demand.

Financial markets have been worried for months about what Brexit, or a British exit from the European Union, would mean for Europe’s future, but were clearly not fully factoring in the risk of a leave vote.

British Prime Minister David Cameron, who campaigned to remain in the EU, said he would stand down by October.

Brent crude (LCOc1) was down $2.45 at $48.46 a barrel at 1004 GMT. U.S. crude (CLc1) was down $2.39 at $47.72 a barrel.

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