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Dollar Index Futures – Not since 1999 have currency traders been bullish on the dollar for so long, a sign that the market sees the U.S. resuming its role as the engine of global economic growth.
Futures anticipating a stronger dollar against its developed-market peers have outnumbered those predicting a drop for 26 consecutive weeks through the five days ended March 13, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. That’s the longest streak since the start of a three-year rally in the world’s reserve currency 13 years ago.
While much of the 2.4 percent gain in the Dollar Index since 2009 has come from investors seeking safety from European debt turmoil and the global financial crisis, analysts now say expansion is trumping fear as a reason for buying U.S. assets. Growth in retail sales and jobs in the world’s biggest economy has damped expectations for more Federal Reserve stimulus that might debase the currency.
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March 12th, 2012
Dollar Index Futures – The dollar gained against most of its major counterparts as stronger U.S. economic data reduced bets the Federal Reserve would add to monetary stimulus, bolstering demand for the currency.
Higher-yielding currencies including Norway’s krone and the euro erased earlier losses against the dollar as stocks gained, amid increased demand for risk. The Australian and New Zealand dollars declined as China’s central bank weakened its daily fixing for the yuan after the nation had its biggest trade deficit in at least 22 years. The Dollar Index reached a six- week high after data last week showed U.S. employers boosted payrolls in February more than economists forecast.
“In the wake of those strong payrolls Friday, the market is left in a holding pattern ahead of retail sales and the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting,” said Richard Franulovich, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. (WBC) in New York. “The dollar’s been driven higher by better news here.”
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