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May 14th, 2012
Commodity Investing – Speculators cut bets on a rally in commodities by the most since November as Greece’s struggle to form a new government and weaker-than-expected industrial output in China erased this year’s gains in raw materials.
Money managers reduced net-long positions across 18 U.S. futures and options by 19 percent to 723,239 contracts in the week ended May 8, the biggest decline since Nov. 22, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 raw materials dropped 6.5 percent in eight sessions through May 11, the longest slide since December 2008.
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May 8th, 2012
Euro Futures – Greece will probably leave the euro as soon as next month as the government runs out of cash and European institutions fail to lend more to the nation, according to John Taylor of hedge fund FX Concepts LLC.
“This summer I think is very likely,” Taylor, founder and chief executive officer of FX Concepts in New York, said today in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Inside Track” with Erik Schatzker and Sara Eisen. “The Europeans aren’t going to give them the money, the International Monetary Fund’s not going to give them an OK. They will be out of money in June.”
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April 16th, 2012
The euro fell to less than $1.30 for the first time in two months as Spanish bond yields rose after a minister called on the European Central Bank to do more to stem debt-market turmoil.
The 17-nation currency dropped for a second day against the yen and reached the lowest since 2010 versus the pound. The yen strengthened against most of its major counterparts. China’s yuan weakened as the central bank widened the currency’s trading band. Higher-yielding currencies pared earlier losses against the dollar after U.S. retail sales rose in March.
“There’s still a hesitation with respect to trading in European bond markets,” said Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy at Wells Fargo & Co. in New York. “The U.S. data was a little bit better than expected. It’s causing a minor risk-on rally.”
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April 4th, 2012
Euro Futures – The euro fell to the lowest in almost a month against the dollar after demand declined at a Spanish bond auction, adding to concern the region is struggling to overcome its sovereign-debt crisis.
The 17-nation currency weakened after the European Central Bank kept its benchmark rate at a record low and President Mario Draghi said the economic outlook remained subject to “downside risks.” The yen and dollar strengthened versus all their most- traded peers tracked by Bloomberg amid demand for the relative safety of the nations’ debt. Sterling rallied as U.K. services growth accelerated last month and house prices increased.
“The large selloff that you saw in euro relative to other currencies is the desire of a lot of the market to be short euro right now given that people are starting to turn back to the euro crisis driven by Spain,” said David Grad, a foreign- exchange strategist at Bank of America Corp. in New York. “The market focus is shifting and so there is downside risk for the euro.” A short position is a bet than an asset will decline in value.
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March 30th, 2012
Euro Futures – The euro rose versus the dollar, heading for its biggest quarterly gain in a year, after European finance ministers agreed to boost an anti-debt-crisis firewall, adding confidence the region’s financial problems are abating.
The dollar fell against most of its major counterparts as stocks and commodities advanced, boosting demand for higher- yielding assets. The yen touched a three-week high against the dollar amid speculation companies are bringing home overseas earnings before the fiscal year ends tomorrow. Sweden’s krona extended a weekly gain as investors pared bets the central bank will cut interest rates.
“The finance ministers came out and did what they were supposed to,” said Brian Kim, a currency strategist in Stamford, Connecticut, at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. “It’s a really right, constructive range for the euro.”
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