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Gasoline sank to the lowest level since January on concern that U.S. and European economies are weakening, reducing fuel demand at the same time refineries increase output.
Gasoline futures slid to the lowest intraday level since Jan. 18. March U.S. retail sales fell the most in nine months. Cyprus said it will seek more aid from the European Union. Gasoline supplies and refinery inputs rose last week, government data show. The motor fuel is the worst performer this month in the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 materials.
“The problems in Europe seem to have bubbled up again and retail sales are not looking too good on top of the weak fundamentals,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.
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Gasoline advanced as increases in durable goods orders and home prices indicated the U.S. economy is strengthening and fuel demand may improve.
Gasoline futures rose 0.5 percent as bookings for goods meant to last at least three years rose 5.7 percent in February, boosted by automobiles and a rebound in commercial aircraft, a Commerce Department report showed. Residential real estate prices increased in January by the most since June 2006, indicating the U.S. housing market strengthened at the start of the year.
“All of a sudden, the economy is looking a little better,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. “People feel richer when the value of their house goes up and increased durable goods orders could mean better demand.”
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Gasoline fell as Brent crude oil, the pricing basis for gasoline imports, weakened versus West Texas Intermediate. Gasoline’s crack spread over WTI narrowed to the lowest level in almost a month.
Gasoline futures lost as much as 1.6 percent as Brent’s premium to WTI slipped to a two-month low. Brent weakened amid a recovery in North Sea oil production, the imminent return of South Sudan oil exports and concern that an upcoming vote in Cyprus on an unprecedented bank levy threatens the euro area economy.
“The Brent is clearly being impacted by the events in Cypress and concerns over the economy in Europe and the return of North sea oil production and exports from the Sudan,” ’’ said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates LLC in Houston.
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Gasoline futures rose as a weaker dollar sparked a commodity rally and on speculation U.S. inventories declined last week. Crack spreads and backwardation narrowed.
Gasoline gained as West Texas Intermediate crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange jumped 1 percent. The dollar slipped 0.2 percent against the euro, boosting the investment appeal of commodities. The Energy Information Administration will probably report tomorrow that U.S. gasoline stockpiles fell 1.2 million barrels last week, according to the median of nine analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
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Heating oil rose futures to the highest level since October as seasonal refinery maintenance limits supplies. Gasoline’s March-April spread weakened a sixth day.
Heating oil climbed 0.7 percent, and the March crack spread widened $1.14 to $38.32 a barrel versus West Texas Intermediate and 36 cents to $17.43 versus Brent. March gasoline’s discount to April increased 0.9 cent to 19.14 cents a gallon. Supplies of the motor fuel in the area around New York Harbor jumped 12 percent last week, government data show.
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Gasoline jumped to the highest level since October as refineries shut units for repair, which may tighten supplies of the motor fuel.
Gasoline futures rose as refiners conducted maintenance at plants in Pennsylvania that supply fuel to New York Harbor, the delivery point of futures contracts. Gasoline inventories along the U.S. East Coast as of Jan. 11 were at the lowest seasonal level since 2006, Energy Information Administration data show.
“There have been refinery glitches and shutdowns that have helped support gasoline,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.
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