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Gold futures gained for the second time in three days as central banks increased holdings and rising tension in the Middle East boosted demand for the precious metal as an investment haven.
Gold bullion holdings linked to exchange-traded products rose to a record. Brazil, Kazakhstan and Russia added to gold reserves last month, data on the International Monetary Fund’s website show. The week-long conflict in the Middle East continued with air strikes in Gaza and a blast that hit a bus in Tel Aviv. A cease-fire accord was agreed to late in the day. Markets in the U.S. are closed tomorrow for the Thanksgiving holiday.
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Gold Futures – Gold will probably rally to a record above $2,000 an ounce next year as central banks ramp up stimulus to sustain the recovery, according to Raymond Key, London-based global head of metals trading at Deutsche Bank AG.
“We’ll take out $2,000, we’ll go higher,” Key said in an interview in Hong Kong, where he attended the London Bullion Market Association’s annual conference. “That’s on the view that they’ll continue to print money.”
Bullion is headed for a 12th annual gain on concern that stimulus by governments and central banks around the world to promote recovery from the global recession and combat the fallout from Europe’s debt crisis will debase currencies and spur inflation. Holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, expanded to the biggest ever last week.
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Gold futures may climb for the third time this week on signs that increasing global stimulus measures will boost investor demand for a hedge against inflation.
The European Central Bank stands ready to activate its bond-purchase program if governments fulfill necessary conditions, ECB President Mario Draghi said today. President Barack Obama, elected for a second term this week, faces a so- called fiscal cliff of $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts to start in January unless Congress acts.
“I’m still bullish on gold, because we’re most likely going to have quantitative easing for a while,” Fred Schoenstein, a trader at Heraeus Precious Metals Management in New York, said in a telephone interview. “That’s on the minds of traders with Obama coming back in.”
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Gold futures climbed the most in three weeks as Brazil and Turkey’s central banks increased holdings of the precious metal and amid signs that purchases are rising in India, the world’s biggest buyer.
Brazil added to its gold reserves for the first time since December 2008, and Turkey also raised its holdings, data on the International Monetary Fund’s website showed. India tends to buy more at this time of year because of jewelry demand for the wedding season and festivals. Prices fell below $1,700 an ounce yesterday for the first time since Sept. 7, which may have sparked some physical buying.
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Gold was seen falling in New York on speculation some investors will sell the metal and physical demand will slow after prices climbed to a 10-month high.
Gold futures rallied last month as central banks from Europe to Japan pledged more action and as miners went on strike in South Africa. The Fed will continue record stimulus even after economic expansion gains strength, Bernanke said in Indianapolis yesterday. It will publish on Oct. 4 minutes of its Sept. 13 meeting when it announced a third round of quantitative easing.
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Gold futures jumped to a 10-month high after Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said that the U.S. central bank can do more to boost the economy, fueling concern that inflation will accelerate.
Evans, who doesn’t vote on Fed policy this year, said today in an interview on CNBC that unemployment probably won’t fall to 7 percent until 2014. The central bank can “back off” of its accommodation should inflation present a greater threat, he said. In the third quarter, gold gained 11 percent, the most since June 2010, as the Fed announced a third round of monetary stimulus.
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Gold futures rose the most in two weeks on speculation that China will announce more stimulus measures to support economic growth, boosting demand for the precious metal as a store of value.
Chinese industrial companies’ profits dropped for a fifth month in August, the National Bureau of Statistics said today. The Shanghai Securities News reported that there is speculation that the government will announce market-boosting measures. Gold has surged 10 percent this quarter as the Federal Reserve announced its third round of stimulus measures to increase growth.
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Gold Futures – Gold traders extended their bullish streak as analysts from Bank of America Corp. to Deutsche Bank AG forecast record prices by next year after central banks pledged more action to bolster economic growth.
Fifteen of 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to rise next week and seven were bearish. A further seven were neutral, extending the overall bullish outlook for an 18th week. Hedge funds’ bets on a rally are at a six-month high and investors bought the most through gold-backed exchange-traded products this quarter in more than two years.
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Gold futures rose to 29-week high on speculation that steps by central banks to bolster economic growth will spur demand for the metal as a store of value.
The Bank of Japan (8301) said today that it will add 10 trillion yen ($127 billion) to a fund that buys assets. On Sept. 13, the Federal Reserve announced a third round of U.S. monetary stimulus. This month, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi gave details on a plan to buy debt of member states, while China approved infrastructure spending.
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Gold futures rallied in afternoon trade Thursday, following the decision by the Federal Open Market Committee to conduct a third round of quantitative easing designed to help improve the struggling labor market.
The Federal Reserve said it will buy $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities in an open-ended program and continue with its “Operation Twist,” where it swaps out short-dated securities for longer-term securities, as well as reinvesting the proceeds of maturing securities. In addition, the Fed extended its outlook for where it will hold interest rate to mid-2015, saying it will keep its ultra-loose monetary policy. This outlook is called forward guidance.
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