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Hog futures fell, heading for the second straight weekly loss, on signs that cool weather across the U.S. is lowering demand for pork. Cattle advanced.
The forecast has turned cooler across the eastern and southern U.S. over the next 11 to 15 days, and a return to warmth “will be slower to evolve,” according to an e-mailed report from MDA Weather Services today. Meat purchases tend to increase when consumers grill outdoors during warmer weather.
“Our domestic demand is really holding us back,” Christian Mayer, a market adviser at Northstar Commodity Investments Co. in Minneapolis, said in a telephone interview. “The weather is what the weather is.”
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Hog futures headed for the biggest drop in almost two weeks after a government report showed the U.S. herd increased more than analysts expected, indicating more pork supplies. Cattle prices also declined.
The hog herd totaled 65.911 million on March 1, up 1.5 percent from 64.937 million a year earlier, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a report released after the close of Chicago futures trading on March 28. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had projected a 0.8 percent increase.
“There’s a little bit larger supplies than everybody’s expecting,” Jason Golly, a vice president of risk-management marketing at Lynch Livestock Inc. in Waucoma, Iowa, said in a telephone interview.
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Lean-hog futures fell to fresh 20-month lows Thursday as traders continue to react to signs of overwhelming pork and hog supplies pushed into markets by the effects of drought.
Hog contracts for October fell 2.5% to 71.75 cents a pound at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the latest 20-month low for the spot contract, or soonest-expiring futures. December hogs lost 1.4% to settle at 70.90 cents a pound. Spot contracts last hit a 20-month low two weeks ago.
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Commodity Investing: The heaviest and most numerous U.S. pig population on record and rebounding Chinese output are creating a surplus that is poised to halt a four-year rally in prices.
U.S. farmers will raise 117.1 million pigs this year, the most in at least a half century, as world pork output gains 2.7 percent to an all-time high of 104.4 million metric tons, U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates show. China may produce 690 million hogs, the most since at least 1976. Prices may drop 10 percent to 77.75 cents a pound in Chicago by Dec. 31, according to the median of 10 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
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