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October 9th, 2012
Milk Futures – U.S. milk production is headed for the biggest contraction in 12 years as a drought-fueled surge in feed costs drives more cows to slaughter.
Output will drop 0.5 percent to 198.9 billion pounds (90.2 million metric tons) in 2013 as the herd shrinks to an eight- year low, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates. Milk futures rose 45 percent since mid-April and may advance at least another 18 percent to a record $25 per 100 pounds by June, said Shawn Hackett. The president of Boynton Beach, Florida-based Hackett Financial Advisers Inc. correctly predicted the rally in March.
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July 5th, 2012
Milk Futures – Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says this may be the first time in five years that New Zealand, the world’s biggest dairy exporter, produces less milk, at a time when surging corn prices are raising costs for U.S. farmers.
The country’s output will drop 2.4 percent in the 12 months ending June 30 as the weather turns less favorable, according to Goldman’s New Zealand unit. Supply from the seven biggest exporting regions may gain 1.2 percent in the second half of 2012, slowing from 3.2 percent in the first six months, according to Rabobank International. Futures, which rose 20 percent since mid-April, will climb a further 15 percent to $20 per 100 pounds in Chicago by Dec. 31, said Shawn Hackett, the agricultural advisor who correctly predicted the rally in March.
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milk futures slump
March 12th, 2012
Commodity Brokers: Record dairy profits and milder weather are leading to a surge in milk supplies from Auckland to California, turning last year’s best-performing commodity contract into one of the worst of 2012.
Output in the U.S., the world’s largest producer, will advance 1.8 percent to a record 199.7 billion pounds (90.6 million metric tons) in 2012, the Department of Agriculture estimates. Futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange already fell 29 percent from a four-year high in August and may drop another 7.8 percent to $14.25 per 100 pounds by July, the median of six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg shows.
An estimated 30 percent jump in U.S. dairy exports led to the most profitable year ever for farmers, who expanded herds that now are the biggest since May 2009, USDA data show. Yields reached a record during an unusually mild winter. Supply is also rising in Australia and New Zealand, the largest exporter, and dairy was the only food cost tracked by the United Nations to decline last month.
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