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May 20th, 2013
Natural gas futures advanced for a second day in New York on forecasts for above-normal temperatures that would boost demand for the power-plant fuel.
Gas gained as much as 2.6 percent after Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland, predicted warmer-than-average weather in the Northeast and Great Lakes region through May 24. The high in New York on May 22 may be 82 degrees Fahrenheit (28 Celsius), 10 more than usual, according to AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania.
“The weather continues to confound the bears,” said Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst for Price Futures Group in Chicago. “Temperatures have gone from colder than normal to warmer than normal. There’s been an incredible amount of volatility with the weather situation.”
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Natural gas futures climbed to an 18-month high in New York as an unusually cold start to spring in the U.S. may bolster demand for the heating fuel.
Gas rose 2.2 percent after a midday update to government forecasting models showed colder weather for the Midwest and East from March 29 through April 2, said Jim Southard, a meteorologist with Frontier Weather Inc. in Tulsa, Oklahoma. Earlier predictions showed seasonal to slightly below-normal temperatures. Prices have jumped 18 percent this year as waves of frigid weather helped reduce a supply glut.
“There has been a lot of bullish money thrown at this market since the end of February,” said Stephen Schork, president of Schork Group Inc., a consulting group in Villanova, Pennsylvania. “We had a nice rally. It’s cold now but in a couple of weeks we’ll have less weather-related demand.”
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Natural gas futures rose to a six- week high in New York after a government report showed that U.S. inventories fell by more than forecast last week as cold weather boosted demand.
Natural gas rose as much as 3.8 percent after the Energy Information Administration said stockpiles fell 146 billion cubic feet in the week ended March 1 to 2.083 trillion. Analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg showed a drop of 132 billion. A cold snap last week brought below-normal temperatures to most of the lower 48 states, according to Commodity Weather Group LLC.
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Natural gas futures gained in New York for the second time in three days on speculation that a cold start to January will drive up demand for the heating fuel.
Natural gas rose as much as 2.2 percent as forecasters including Commodity Weather Group LLC predicted below-normal temperatures for most of the lower 48 states over the next six to 10 days. An Energy Department report today may show supplies declined by 72 billion cubic feet last week, based on the median of 20 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The five-year average drop for the period is 140 billion, department data show.
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Natural gas futures fell to the lowest price in almost 11 weeks after a government report showed that U.S. stockpiles increased unexpectedly as mild weather cut demand for heating fuels.
Natural gas slid 1 percent after the Energy Department said inventories rose 2 billion cubic feet in the week ended Dec. 7 to 3.806 trillion cubic feet. Analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg showed an expected drop of 3 billion. It was the latest seasonal supply gain since the week ended Dec. 30, 2005, according to department data compiled by Bloomberg.
“The storage injection was reflective of the very, very warm temperatures,” said Kyle Cooper, director of research with IAF Advisors in Houston. “If Mother Nature continues to deal bearish blows, the market is going to head lower.”
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Natural gas futures declined for a second day after a government report showed U.S. stockpiles climbed by more than the five-year average last week.
Natural gas dropped as much as 2.6 percent after the Energy Department said inventories expanded by 67 billion cubic feet in the week ended Oct. 19 to 3.843 trillion cubic feet. Analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg showed a gain of 67 billion. A survey of Bloomberg users predicted an increase of 66 billion. Supplies rose to a record 3.852 trillion cubic feet last year.
“The short story is that we’re not running out of gas,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “We’re within 9 billion cubic feet of an all-time high storage level.”
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Natural gas futures gained for a third day in New York amid forecasts of below-normal temperatures that may reduce a glut of the fuel in storage.
Gas climbed 0.2 percent. The weather may be cooler than normal in the Northeast through Oct. 14, according to MDA EarthSat Weather. An Energy Department report tomorrow may show that stockpiles rose 78 billion cubic feet last week, below the five-year average increase of 84 billion, based on the median of 20 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
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Natural-gas futures fell 2.1% as forecasters called for cooler temperatures next week, threatening demand for gas-powered air conditioning.
The market is pulling back from Tuesday’s hot-weather-driven rally, as forecasters project that this week’s above-normal temperatures won’t last, said Pax Saunders, an analyst for Gelber & Associates.
The East Coast will be cooler than previously forecast in the next six to 10 days, private forecaster MDA EarthSat said.
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Natural-gas futures rallied Wednesday on news that Hurricane Isaac has prompted more production to go off-line and suspicion that flooding from the storm could damage other infrastructure.
The front-month natural-gas contract for September, which expires Wednesday, settled at $2.634/MMBtu, up 2 cents, or 0.8%. The October natural-gas contract settled at $2.685/MMBtu, up 5.2 cents, or nearly 2%.
The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, which regulates offshore petroleum development, said Wednesday that petroleum companies had shut 1.3 million barrels of oil per day, or nearly 95%, and 3.2 billion cubic feet of natural gas, or nearly 72%. That is up from the 93% of the Gulf’s oil and 67% of its gas that were off-line as of Tuesday.
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Natural gas futures reversed course Friday, turning lower as investors weighed the threat of this year’s first tropical storm projected to reach the Gulf of Mexico.
Natural gas futures for September delivery was recently trading lower by 4.3 cents, or 1.5%, to recently trade at $2.759 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after trading as high as $2.877/MMBtu earlier in the session.
Tropical Storm Isaac is on track to cross Cuba and head into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday, according to forecasts from the National Hurricane Center, strengthening into a hurricane by early Tuesday morning as it heads northwest toward Alabama and the Florida panhandle.
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