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May 20th, 2013
Natural gas futures advanced for a second day in New York on forecasts for above-normal temperatures that would boost demand for the power-plant fuel.
Gas gained as much as 2.6 percent after Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland, predicted warmer-than-average weather in the Northeast and Great Lakes region through May 24. The high in New York on May 22 may be 82 degrees Fahrenheit (28 Celsius), 10 more than usual, according to AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania.
“The weather continues to confound the bears,” said Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst for Price Futures Group in Chicago. “Temperatures have gone from colder than normal to warmer than normal. There’s been an incredible amount of volatility with the weather situation.”
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Natural gas futures climbed to an 18-month high in New York as an unusually cold start to spring in the U.S. may bolster demand for the heating fuel.
Gas rose 2.2 percent after a midday update to government forecasting models showed colder weather for the Midwest and East from March 29 through April 2, said Jim Southard, a meteorologist with Frontier Weather Inc. in Tulsa, Oklahoma. Earlier predictions showed seasonal to slightly below-normal temperatures. Prices have jumped 18 percent this year as waves of frigid weather helped reduce a supply glut.
“There has been a lot of bullish money thrown at this market since the end of February,” said Stephen Schork, president of Schork Group Inc., a consulting group in Villanova, Pennsylvania. “We had a nice rally. It’s cold now but in a couple of weeks we’ll have less weather-related demand.”
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Natural gas futures rose to a six- week high in New York after a government report showed that U.S. inventories fell by more than forecast last week as cold weather boosted demand.
Natural gas rose as much as 3.8 percent after the Energy Information Administration said stockpiles fell 146 billion cubic feet in the week ended March 1 to 2.083 trillion. Analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg showed a drop of 132 billion. A cold snap last week brought below-normal temperatures to most of the lower 48 states, according to Commodity Weather Group LLC.
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Natural gas futures gained in New York for the second time in three days on speculation that a cold start to January will drive up demand for the heating fuel.
Natural gas rose as much as 2.2 percent as forecasters including Commodity Weather Group LLC predicted below-normal temperatures for most of the lower 48 states over the next six to 10 days. An Energy Department report today may show supplies declined by 72 billion cubic feet last week, based on the median of 20 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The five-year average drop for the period is 140 billion, department data show.
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Natural gas futures fell to the lowest price in almost 11 weeks after a government report showed that U.S. stockpiles increased unexpectedly as mild weather cut demand for heating fuels.
Natural gas slid 1 percent after the Energy Department said inventories rose 2 billion cubic feet in the week ended Dec. 7 to 3.806 trillion cubic feet. Analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg showed an expected drop of 3 billion. It was the latest seasonal supply gain since the week ended Dec. 30, 2005, according to department data compiled by Bloomberg.
“The storage injection was reflective of the very, very warm temperatures,” said Kyle Cooper, director of research with IAF Advisors in Houston. “If Mother Nature continues to deal bearish blows, the market is going to head lower.”
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Natural gas futures declined for a second day after a government report showed U.S. stockpiles climbed by more than the five-year average last week.
Natural gas dropped as much as 2.6 percent after the Energy Department said inventories expanded by 67 billion cubic feet in the week ended Oct. 19 to 3.843 trillion cubic feet. Analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg showed a gain of 67 billion. A survey of Bloomberg users predicted an increase of 66 billion. Supplies rose to a record 3.852 trillion cubic feet last year.
“The short story is that we’re not running out of gas,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “We’re within 9 billion cubic feet of an all-time high storage level.”
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Natural gas futures gained for a third day in New York amid forecasts of below-normal temperatures that may reduce a glut of the fuel in storage.
Gas climbed 0.2 percent. The weather may be cooler than normal in the Northeast through Oct. 14, according to MDA EarthSat Weather. An Energy Department report tomorrow may show that stockpiles rose 78 billion cubic feet last week, below the five-year average increase of 84 billion, based on the median of 20 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
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Natural gas futures dropped from a 10-month high in New York on forecasts of moderating temperatures that may limit demand for the fuel to generate electricity.
Gas slid as much as 3.2 percent. The weather may be mostly normal in the eastern half of the U.S. from Oct. 13 to Oct. 17, compared with earlier forecasts that showed below-normal temperatures, according to Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland. Prices rose to $3.531 per million British thermal units yesterday, the highest settlement since Dec. 2.
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Natural-gas futures declined Monday as weather forecasts calling for warmer temperatures across much of the U.S. suggested limited gas-fired heating demand ahead.
Natural gas for October delivery settled 4.8 cents, or 1.7%, lower at $2.837 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The more heavily traded November contract settled 1.2% lower at $3.033/MMBtu.
Commodity Weather Group said Monday that warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected across the Midwest and East Coast over the next two weeks, keeping demand for heating “relatively low” for this time of year.
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Natural-gas futures rallied Wednesday on news that Hurricane Isaac has prompted more production to go off-line and suspicion that flooding from the storm could damage other infrastructure.
The front-month natural-gas contract for September, which expires Wednesday, settled at $2.634/MMBtu, up 2 cents, or 0.8%. The October natural-gas contract settled at $2.685/MMBtu, up 5.2 cents, or nearly 2%.
The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, which regulates offshore petroleum development, said Wednesday that petroleum companies had shut 1.3 million barrels of oil per day, or nearly 95%, and 3.2 billion cubic feet of natural gas, or nearly 72%. That is up from the 93% of the Gulf’s oil and 67% of its gas that were off-line as of Tuesday.
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