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November 25th, 2011
Gold traders are more bullish after investors accumulated the biggest-ever hoard of the metal, with Europe’s deepening debt crisis driving them to protect their wealth with this year’s second-best performing commodity.
Eighteen of 26 surveyed by Bloomberg expect bullion to rise next week. Holdings in exchange-traded products backed by gold reached a record 2,350.8 metric tons on Nov. 23, now valued at $127.6 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Hedge funds and other speculators increased their net-long position, or bets on higher prices, for four weeks, the longest stretch since March, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show.
Almost $12 trillion was wiped off the value of global equities since May on mounting concern about slower global growth, driving investors to what are perceived as the safest assets. Yields on Treasuries fell to a near-record low and gold is heading for an 11th consecutive annual gain. Bullion beat every other member of the Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities this year except for gasoil.
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Gold rebounded from the lowest level in almost four weeks in London as debt concerns in the U.S. and Europe spurred demand for the metal as a protection of wealth.
A U.S. Congress budget supercommittee failed to reach agreement on reducing the budget deficit and data today may show European consumer confidence sank to a two-year low, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. Holdings in exchange- traded products backed by gold climbed to a record yesterday as prices dropped 2.7 percent, the most in eight weeks.
“We’re seeing a bit of physical buying” after yesterday’s drop, Afshin Nabavi, a senior vice president at bullion refiner MKS Finance SA in Geneva, said today by phone. “I remain positive on gold because of all the mess going on in the world.”
Immediate-delivery gold gained $17.43, or 1 percent, to $1,694.75 an ounce by 11 a.m. in London. Prices yesterday fell to $1,667.03, the lowest since Oct. 25. Gold for December delivery was up 1 percent at $1,695.40 on the Comex in New York.
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November 21st, 2011
Gold futures fell below $1,700 an ounce to the lowest in almost three weeks in New York as a stronger dollar curbed demand for the metal as an alternative investment.
The greenback rose against the euro, and European equities fell amid signs U.S. lawmakers will fail to reach an agreement on budget cuts. Spain’s People’s Party won a parliamentary majority, making the ousted Socialists the fifth European government to be toppled amid the region’s debt crisis. Holdings in exchange-traded products backed by gold climbed to a record.
“We have a firmer dollar, and that is negative for gold,” Peter Fertig, the owner of Quantitative Commodity Research Ltd. in Hainburg, Germany, said by telephone. “There might be some small bargain-hunting at these levels, but I’m looking more for the downside in gold than the upside.”
Gold futures for December delivery slipped 2.3 percent to $1,685.90 an ounce at 11:12 p.m., after earlier touching $1,682.40, the first time the most-active contract dropped below $1,700 since Nov. 1. The metal slid 3.5 percent last week. In London, gold for immediate delivery lost 2.1 percent to $1,687.30.
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November 17th, 2011
Gold will lead a rally in commodities in 2012 as Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis continues to roil financial markets, spurring demand for the metal as a haven asset, according to Morgan Stanley.
“There’s a very strong chance that gold will re-challenge successfully the all-time high,” said Peter Richardson, chief metals economist at Morgan Stanley Australia Ltd., who has studied the metals markets for more than two decades. Bullion may climb to a record $2,200 an ounce in the first half, he said in an interview. He also backed copper.
Gold is rallying for an 11th year, gaining 24 percent, as investors seek to protect their wealth from declining equities, depreciating currencies and the threat of inflation. While billionaire John Paulson cut his stake in the SPDR Gold Trust in the third quarter, he is still the biggest holder. Central banks will continue to be net purchasers, according to the producer- funded World Gold Council.
The euro-zone crisis shows no sign of being “close to a resolution” and the contagion risk spreading across Europe is just the beginning, Richardson said in Singapore yesterday. “A significant withdrawal of credit, write-downs on balance sheets, these are not good developments for financial markets generally and it’s very hard to see how this can end well.”
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November 11th, 2011
Gold future traders and analysts are the most bullish in at least seven years as investors accumulate metal at the fastest pace since August to protect their wealth from a widening European debt crisis.
Twenty-one of 22 surveyed by Bloomberg expect bullion to rise on the Comex in New York next week, the third consecutive increase and the highest proportion in data going back to April 2004. Holdings in exchange-traded products backed by gold rose 27.5 metric tons this week, within 1 percent of the record set almost three months ago, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Gold futures exceeded $1,800 an ounce for the first time in seven weeks on Nov. 8 and hedge funds are holding their biggest bet on higher prices since mid-September, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. The metal is rebounding after tumbling as much as 20 percent in three weeks in September on demand for what are perceived as the safest assets. Almost $9 trillion was wiped off the value of global equities since May and yields on Italian and Greek bonds rose to euro-era records this week.
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November 8th, 2011
Gold futures topped $1,800 an ounce for the first time in almost seven weeks on concern that European leaders will be unable to contain the region’s debt crisis, fueling demand for the precious metal as a haven.
Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi failed to muster an absolute majority on a routine parliamentary ballot today, fueling more calls for his resignation. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled more monetary stimulus may be needed to cut unemployment, while the European Central Bank last week unexpectedly lowered interest rates. Gold has rallied more than 11 percent since the end of September.
“The turmoil in Europe has brought the fear trade back to gold,” Lance Roberts, the chief executive officer of Houston- based Streettalk Advisors, said in a telephone interview. “Also, a renewed wave of policy easing by central banks is helping gold.”
Gold futures for December delivery rose 0.5 percent to close at $1,799.20 an ounce at 1:47 p.m. on the Comex in New York, after touching $1,804.40, the highest since Sept. 21. Prices fell to $1,785.70 in after-hours trading.
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November 4th, 2011
Gold futures traders are the most bullish in three weeks after hedge funds boosted their wagers on higher prices on speculation Europe’s debt crisis and slow U.S. growth will spur demand for the metal as a protection of wealth.
Twenty-eight of 32 people surveyed by Bloomberg expect bullion to rise on the Comex in New York next week, the most since Oct. 14 and the second increase in a row. Money managers boosted their combined net-long position in New York gold by 8.7 percent in the week to Oct. 25, U.S. government data show. Traders expect lower copper and raw-sugar prices next week, and gains in corn and soybeans, separate surveys showed.
Gold futures climbed above $1,760 an ounce this week for the first time in six weeks and investors increased their holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products to a two-month high. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled more monetary stimulus may be needed to cut unemployment, while the European Central Bank yesterday unexpectedly lowered interest rates.
“The conditions are perfect” for gold, said Mark O’Byrne, the Dublin-based executive director of GoldCore Ltd., a brokerage that offers investors quarter-ounce British Sovereigns up to 400-ounce gold bars. “We have unprecedented levels of risk in markets. We still have ultra-loose monetary policy and the debasing of currencies. That’s obviously bullish for gold.”
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September 19th, 2011
Gold futures will probably top $2,000 an ounce by year-end amid surging investor demand, a Bloomberg survey showed.
Gold futures prices will rise to a peak of $2,038 before Dec. 31, based on the average of 16 respondents in a Bloomberg survey at the London Bullion Market Association’s annual conference in Montreal. Next year, gold will peak at $2,268, according to the average in the survey.
Gold has surged 25 percent this year, touching a record $1,923.70 in New York on Sept. 6. The metal climbed as escalating debt woes in Europe and the prospect of faltering U.S. growth boosted demand.
“This is largely a crisis of confidence, and gold is a safe haven,” Rujan Panjwani, the president of Edelweiss Financial Services Ltd., said in an interview at the conference. “I see little chance of gold falling.”
Gold is in the 11th year of a bull market, the longest winning streak since at least 1920 in London, as investors seek to diversify away from equities and some currencies. Holdings in exchange-traded funds backed by the metal have jumped 31 percent in the past two years, reaching a record 2,260.5 metric tons on Aug. 8.
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September 2nd, 2011
Gold futures jumped the most in almost four weeks after a report showed that U.S. employment unexpectedly stagnated in August, lifting demand for haven assets.
The unemployment rate remained at 9.1 percent and payrolls were unchanged, the weakest reading since September 2010, Labor Department data showed. Analysts expected a gain of 65,000. Gold has more than doubled since the end of 2008, touching a record $1,917.90 an ounce last month, as governments worldwide struggled with debt crises and as record-low U.S. borrowing costs boosted bullion’s appeal as an inflation hedge.
“Today is one of a series of data points that, when taken in aggregate, continue to show a weakening U.S. economy and a lack of confidence in our government’s ability to do something about it,” Steve Shafer, who helps manage $300 million as chief investment officer of Covenant Investors, said by telephone from Oklahoma City. “Combined with the problems out of Europe, there’s a depreciating confidence in fiat currencies. All of those funnel into a heightened demand for gold.”
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September 2nd, 2011
Gold futures gained in New York as concern about slowing growth drove equities lower and boosted demand for the metal as an alternative investment.
European equities fell before a report that may show the U.S. economy, the world’s largest, added fewer jobs last month as the unemployment rate held above 9 percent. Advanced economies will probably return to recession as governments toughen austerity measures, said Nouriel Roubini, who predicted a bubble in U.S. house prices before the market peaked in 2006.
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