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Silver Futures – Hedge funds are the most bullish on silver in seven months and investors’ holdings are expanding toward a record on speculation the metal will outperform gold as central banks seek to boost growth.
Wagers on rising prices jumped 10-fold since June, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Investors bought 717.2 metric tons valued at $797 million through exchange-traded products this quarter, the most in a year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Prices will increase for at least the next three quarters and average $38 an ounce in the three months through June, or 9.9 percent more than now, based on the median of 14 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
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Silver Futures – Silver assets in exchange-traded products are poised to expand to a record, joining the biggest- ever hoards of gold and platinum, as increased stimulus from the world’s central banks spurs investors to amass precious metals.
The amount held in ETPs was 18,525.76 metric tons yesterday, 0.6 percent below the peak of 18,639.07 tons in April 2011, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Silver, which also benefits from bets on economic recovery, has risen 22 percent this year, outperforming gold, platinum and palladium futures.
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Silver Futures – Silver holdings in exchange-traded products slumped by $626.9 million as prices traded near a three-month low and exchange stockpiles climbed, underscoring concern a global economic slowdown may curb demand.
Assets in ETPs lost 3.6 percent yesterday, the biggest one- day drop since January 2008. Silver dropped as much as 3.8 percent to $30.48 an ounce yesterday, the lowest price since Jan. 20, and traded at $30.9325 by 1:35 p.m. in London today.
Demand for silver fell in 2011 for the first year in four as Europe’s debt crisis sapped industrial use of the metal found in solar panels and photography, Thomson Reuters GFMS said in a report on April 19. The decline in ETP assets yesterday drove holdings to the lowest level since August.
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Silver futures ended at a three-month high and gold rallied Tuesday amid elation over the long-awaited Greek bailout deal and a weaker dollar.
European officials agreed to extend Greece a €130 billion bailout package in order to avoid a messy default and keep the country in the currency bloc. Private-sector creditors will take a 53.5% haircut on the value of Greek government bonds, helping put the country back on the path toward sustainable debt levels.
The most actively traded gold contract, for April delivery, rose $32.60, or 1.9%, to settle at $1,758.50 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. This was the highest settlement price since Feb. 2.
The rest of the precious-metals complex followed gold’s cues, with silver posting a settlement high for the year at $34.429 a troy ounce. The precious metal rallied up 3.7%, or $1.213, a troy ounce, ending trade at the highest level since Nov. 15.
The Greek deal comes after months of wrangling and delays as European officials and Greek leaders struggled to find solutions to the country’s debt problems.
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Silver futures rose and gold extended a rally to a record, topping $1,800 an ounce, on mounting demand for a haven as global equities plunged amid escalating U.S. and European debt woes.
The MSCI World Index of shares approached the lowest level since September as U.S. stocks tumbled. The euro dropped as much as 1.5 percent against the dollar, and the yen strengthened close to a post-World War II high against the greenback. Gold has climbed almost $150 this week.
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Silver futures fell by 0.32% to Rs 57,230 per kg in futures trade today, extending yesterday’s losses, on continued profit-booking by speculators amid weak trend at New York.
At the Multi Commodity Exchange, silver for delivery in September dropped by Rs 181, or 0.32%, to Rs 57,230 per kg, with a business turnover of 3,538 lots. Likewise, for delivery in December, the white metal traded Rs 197, or 0.32%, lower at Rs 58,701 per kg, clocking a turnover of 386 lots.
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Silver futures may more than double to $100 an ounce if the current bull market follows similar patterns seen between 1971 and 1980, according to technical analysis by Citigroup Global Markets Inc.
The attached chart shows spot silver had “two legs up” with an interim corrective move down in the last major bull market from November 1971 through January 1980, Citigroup analysts led by New York-based Tom Fitzpatrick wrote in a report. In the current uptrend that started in November 2001, the metal jumped 5.8 times through March 2008 before slipping 60 percent, they said. The price then rebounded and tested the 1980 high earlier this year, they said.
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