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June 5th, 2012
Soybean futures’ price decline last month offers a buying opportunity for consumers because demand for U.S. beans is expected to be “strong” in the September-to- February period, Oil World said.
U.S. soybean exports in the first half of the 2012-13 crop year are forecast to jump to 33.5 million metric tons from 24.2 million tons in the year-earlier period, the Hamburg-based oilseed researcher wrote in an e-mailed report.
Demand for U.S. beans is forecast to climb after drought cut the harvest in Brazil and Argentina, the biggest shippers after the U.S. in 2011-12, according to Oil World. Soybean futures fell 11 percent in Chicago in May, the biggest monthly drop since September amid expectations for a bigger U.S. crop.
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March 23rd, 2012
Soybean futures rebounded on Friday as worries about drought-reduced crops in South America and that early corn seeding in the Midwest may divert planted acres from soybeans lifted prices more than 1 percent.
Corn followed soybeans higher, adding 0.6 percent in a short-covering bounce, although gains were capped by expectations for the most planted acres this year since 1944.
Wheat also drew support from higher soy, with dollar-denominated grains in general lifted by a weaker U.S. currency, which makes them more competitive on the world market.
Traders looked ahead to the prospective plantings report to be released by the Department of Agriculture on March 30 amid a backdrop of unseasonably mild U.S. weather that has some farmers already planting corn.
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March 22nd, 2012
Soybean Futures – In the world’s biggest agricultural market, the director of grains research at the largest broker on the Chicago Board of Trade says soybeans will beat corn.
Dan Cekander, the pheasant-hunting fourth-generation Illinois farmer at Newedge USA LLC says soybeans, off to the best start to a year since 2005, will trade at the most expensive levels relative to corn since 2010. Global inventories are poised to slump 17 percent to the lowest in three years, while world corn harvests increase to a record and U.S. farmers prepare to plant the most acres since 1944.
Six months before U.S. farmers start planting, Cekander was already gauging what they would sow. The secret is in the seeds because many growers buy most of their supply by the start of January. That helped him predict on Feb. 3 that soybeans for May delivery would rally. The contract jumped as much as 13 percent in six weeks. He’s backing his bet that beans will beat corn by planting more in his own fields in Illinois.
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March 21st, 2012
Soybean futures may rebound from their biggest decline since January on speculation that next week’s U.S. Department of Agriculture planting report will show farmers didn’t increase oilseed planting.
The USDA’s prospective plantings report, scheduled to be released on March 30 in Washington, may show a 11 percent rise in soybean futures this year hasn’t encouraged farmers to increase acres, said Erin FitzPatrick, an analyst at Rabobank International. Growers may increase area seeded with corn, which is little changed since Jan. 1, she said.
“I’m not confident soybeans have bought much acreage from corn in the U.S.,” London-based FitzPatrick said in an e-mail today. “Soybeans will probably be fairly range bound until we get next Friday’s USDA release. Fundamentally there isn’t a lot of downside from here.”
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March 16th, 2012
Commodity Investing: The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities jumped 0.8 percent to 706.15 at 5:17 p.m. in London. The UBS Bloomberg CMCI index of 26 raw materials was up 0.1 percent at 1,638.728. In the GSCI, Brent crude was up the most, at 1.7 percent, and nickel was down the most, at 2.1 percent.
CRUDE OIL
Oil increased, paring this week’s decline, on speculation that fuel demand will climb with the economic rebound in the U.S., the world’s biggest crude-consuming country.
Crude for April delivery rose 0.7 percent to $105.85 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are up 7.1 percent this year and down 1.4 percent this week.
Brent oil for May settlement increased 1.7 percent to $124.29 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
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March 16th, 2012
Soybean futures extended this month’s rally to the highest level since September on speculation that China may boost purchases from the U.S. Corn slid.
Corn futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange jumped to a record today after Jilin Corn Center Wholesale markets said yesterday the Chinese government bought 1.2 million metric tons of domestic grain so far this year compared with 11 million tons last year, signaling imports may rise to boost supplies. China’s soybean imports may rise more than 20 percent in the first half of 2012, Grain.gov.cn said March 12.
“The rising markets are a reflection of traders expecting increased Chinese purchases from the U.S.,” Jerry Gidel, the chief feed analyst at Chicago-based, Rice Dairy LLC, said in a telephone interview. “Rising meat demand is driving Chinese consumption of feed.”
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Grain futures fall
March 9th, 2012
Grain Futures – Global inventories of wheat and soybeans are falling more than forecast, while U.S. corn reserves head to a 16-year low, as farmers fail to keep pace with rising demand for food, livestock feed and biofuel.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture today cut its forecast of world wheat stockpiles on May 31 by 1.7 percent to 209.6 million metric tons, less than all 21 estimates collected in a Bloomberg survey. Soybean reserves on Aug. 31 will drop to a three-year low of 57.3 million tons, while the amount of corn held in the U.S., the world’s top grower and exporter, will slip to the lowest since at least since 1996, the agency said.
U.S. farm exports rose to a record $136.3 billion in 2011 on surging demand for grain and meat in Asia. The government today boosted its forecast of U.S. wheat exports by 2.6 percent from February, which will send domestic stockpiles to a three- year low. Global food prices tracked by the United Nations rose for a second consecutive month in February on higher costs for cereals, cooking oils and sugar.
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wheat futures supply
March 9th, 2012
Wheat Futures – Global wheat inventories will be 1.7 percent less than forecast a month ago and smaller than expected on increasing use of the grain in livestock feed, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
World stockpiles will total a record 209.58 million metric tons as of May 31, down from 213.10 million estimated last month, the USDA said today in a report. In a Bloomberg survey, 21 analysts expected supplies of 212.83 million tons, on average.
Global use of wheat in livestock feed will total 131.06 million tons, up from 130.66 million estimated last month, the USDA said. Corn futures for May delivery are trading near parity with wheat on the Chicago Board of Trade, compared with an average discount of about 91 cents in the past year. Global wheat exports may reach 142.93 million tons, up from 140.25 million forecast last month.
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March 6th, 2012
Soybean futures rose to a fresh five-month high on Wednesday, amid indications demand from top consumer China will remain strong in the near-term, while investors readjusted positions ahead of Friday’s closely-watched U.S. government report on global soybean supplies.
On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, soybeans futures for May delivery traded at USD13.3862 a bushel during European morning trade, edging up 0.32%.
It earlier rose by as much as 0.4% to trade at USD13.3875 a bushel, the highest since September 23.
Soybean prices have gained in nine of the last ten trading sessions leading up to Wednesday.
Futures have rallied almost 11% since the beginning of February, as traders focused on distressed crops in major South American soy growers and on hopes demand from top consumer China will remain robust in the near-term.
China’s northeast province of Heilongjiang, the country’s top corn and soy grower, aims to expand its corn acreage by paring back on land for soy crops in an effort to raise total grains output by 8% in 2012.
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February 29th, 2012
Soybean futures, poised for the biggest monthly advance since 2010 in Chicago, rose to a five-month high on signs of a second year of global shortage as South American crops wilt amid a drought.
The oilseed has gained 9.6 percent in February, the most since December 2010. Dry weather in South America has slashed output and inventories are forecast by Jefferies Bache LLC to drop 20 percent from the prior year. Oilseed stockpiles will reach a three-year low of 74.1 million metric tons in the 2011- 12 season, researcher Oil World said yesterday.
“The dry weather in South America and the view that yields are going down are starting to gather some momentum,” Neil Burgess, a Sydney-based analyst at Westpac Banking Corp., said by e-mail. “The focus is turning to U.S. supplies and export demand from China.”
Soybean futures for May delivery climbed 0.2 percent to $13.145 a bushel by 1:15 p.m. London time on the Chicago Board of Trade. Prices touched $13.15, the highest level for a most-active contract since Sept. 22. A gain today would be the longest winning streak since the eight sessions through Dec. 27.
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