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Sugar futures climbed to a four-month high in London on speculation millers in Brazil, the world’s leading producer, will make more ethanol at the expense of the sweetener just as port congestion threatens to delay exports. Cocoa rose.
Sugar output in Brazil’s center south, the main growing region, may be little changed from last year even as the cane crop rises because producers are set to make more ethanol, according to Deutsche Bank AG. As many as 199 ships were waiting at Brazil’s main ports to load corn and soybeans, up from 190 a week earlier, data from SA Commodities and Unimar Agenciamentos Maritimos Ltda. showed. More loading of grains could delay shipments of the sweetener when the harvest starts in April.
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Sugar output is poised to drop for the first time since 2009 as farmers from Mexico to India cut plantings after the biggest two-year price slump since 1999.
Global output will decline to 165 million metric tons in the 2013-14 marketing year that will start in October in most countries, according to DZ Bank AG, Germany’s largest cooperative lender. Production will be a record 172.3 million tons in 2012-13 after three straight expansions, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates. Raw sugar in New York will rise 9.6 percent to average 20.5 cents in the fourth quarter, the mean of nine bank estimates compiled by Bloomberg shows.
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Sugar futures rose in London to the highest price in almost four weeks on speculation demand for the refined variety exceeded estimates. Robusta coffee gained.
The premium commanded by white, or refined, sugar over raw sweetener climbed 5.4 percent in the past month, data compiled by Bloomberg showed. That may mean demand was underestimated, London-based broker Marex Spectron Group said in a report dated today. Sugar is down 13 percent in London and 16 percent in New York in 2012, heading for a second year of declines, as global supply is set to outpace demand for a third year in the 2012-13 season begun in October.
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Sugar futures jumped the most in two weeks on signs of declining output in India, the world’s second-biggest producer.
The Indian Sugar Mills Association said today that production of 2.33 million metric tons in October and November was down 2.5 percent from a year earlier because of crushing delays in Uttar Pradesh. The group has pegged the harvest at 24 million tons, down from 26.3 million in the season ended Sept. 30, while UBS AG has said output may be as low as 23 million tons.
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Sugar Futures – U.S. soft futures were higher during U.S. morning hours on Thursday, with sugar and coffee prices firming as top producer Brazil’s harvest of both commodities begins to wind down.
On the ICE Futures U.S. Exchange, sugar futures for March delivery traded at USD0.1925 a pound, up 0.7% on the day. The March contract rose by as much as 1.4% earlier in the session to hit a daily high of USD0.1939 a pound.
Brazil’s top sugar industry group Unica said on November 26 that sugar output in Brazil’s Center South-region jumped 37% in the first two weeks of November compared to the same period a year earlier.
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Sugar Futures – Indian farmers may reap at least 6 percent more sugar than forecast by the government and industry, extending the longest global glut in more than a decade and a bear market that began in September.
Output in the world’s second-biggest producer will reach 25.53 million metric tons in the season that began Oct. 1, according to a survey of 820 farmers across an area responsible for 93 percent of national output by Geneva-based SGS SA (SGSN) for Bloomberg. While that’s 2.6 percent less than a year earlier, the government expects output of 23.5 million tons and the Indian Sugar Mills Association predicts 24 million tons.
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Raw sugar futures on ICE plunged almost 4 percent on Thursday as funds and speculative investors continued to liquidate positions amid talk that importers may be cancelling cargoes. Coffee hit one-month lows and cocoa plumbed levels last seen in July amid plentiful supplies and sluggish consumption.
Reinforcing concerns about weakening demand was widespread talk about sugar washouts – where buyers give up the obligation to take delivery by paying a penalty – which centred on China and India, dealers said. Buyers may be walking away from hundreds of thousands of tonnes worth of contracts after sup ply concerns that sent prices a s high as 24 cents a lb in mid-July dissipated. Prices have since plunged 15 percent.
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Sugar futures gained the most in two weeks on speculation that adverse weather in Brazil, the world’s top exporter, and India may limit global supplies. Cocoa and coffee also advanced.
Sugar-cane output in India, the second-biggest grower, will drop 6.2 percent in the year starting Oct. 1 as dry weather cuts yields, Farm Minister Sharad Pawar said yesterday. Growing regions in Brazil will get rain this week that may delay fieldwork, Sao Paulo-based Somar Meteorologia said.
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Sugar Futures – China, the biggest sugar importer, may harvest its second-largest crop after favorable weather spurred farmers to increase planting, potentially cutting overseas purchases and widening a global surplus. Prices fell.
Production may climb 19 percent to 13.7 million metric tons in the season starting October, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of nine analysts and traders. Output totaled 11.5 million tons this season, according to the China Sugar Association. The crop reached a record 14.8 million tons in 2007-2008, data from the association show.
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Sugar Futures – Sugar, trading near a two-year low, is set to pile up in producing countries next season as a lack of demand amid a global surplus forces growers to hold back supplies, according to Kingsman SA.
“Sellers will struggle to get buyers for raw sugar in the season starting October,” Jonathan Kingsman, chief executive officer of the Lausanne, Switzerland-based researcher and broker, said in an interview in New Delhi. “Indonesia will be the biggest raw sugar importer in the absence of Russia and China. Prices will remain under pressure in the next six to 12 months on excessive supplies.”
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