April 30, 2012

Managed Futures – Smaller managed futures funds able to exploit niche commodity markets and the most volatile conditions are increasingly likely to win assets from investors disappointed with returns from the big trend-followers that dominate the industry.

Managed futures, or commodity trading advisers (CTAs), attracted a wave of assets in 2009 after performing well during the 2008 financial crisis.

Mainstream institutional money flooded into some of the best-known trend-followers, so that 60 percent of total CTA assets are now with the top 10 players.

But since 2009, industry performance has been patchy as traditional trend-following models have struggled in range-bound markets in which it is hard to gain traction.

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April 30th, 2012

Sugar Futures – The price of raw sugar traded in New York may fall below 19 cents a pound “very soon,” prompting processors in top producer Brazil to make ethanol rather than the sweetener, Marex Spectron Group said.

Sugar futures have fallen 8.4 percent on ICE Futures U.S. in New York this year, as supplies outpace demand by 6 million metric tons, up from a previous forecast of 5.2 million tons, according to the International Sugar Organization in London. The price was at 21.34 cents a pound by 6:28 a.m. Below 19 cents a pound, millers in Brazil would favor production of the biofuel, Marex Spectron said, referring to the variety used in flex fuel cars.

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April 13th, 2012

Sugar traders are bearish for a seventh consecutive week, the longest stretch since at least 2007, on prospects for the first supply glut in four years.

Sixteen of 22 analysts expect raw-sugar prices to decline next week and one was neutral, according to Bloomberg’s weekly sentiment survey that began in April 2007. Global production will exceed demand by 10 million metric tons in the 12 months ending in September, equal to about a year of U.S. consumption, according to Singapore-based Olam International Ltd., which trades and processes commodities in 65 countries.

Sugar prices that surged to a 30-year high in February last year spurred farmers to plant more cane and beet, expanding global production to a record this season. Futures traded in New York slumped 8.5 percent in the past three weeks on mounting concern about another glut next season. Thailand, the world’s second- biggest exporter, may ship the most supply ever this year, the country’s Office of the Cane & Sugar Board said on April 11.

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