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Wheat advanced for a second day, extending a rebound from the lowest level in nine months, on concern that freezing conditions in the U.S. probably hurt the winter crop, while wet weather may delay planting of the spring crop. Corn fell for a fourth day, deepening a bear market.
Wheat futures for delivery in May gained as much as 0.9 percent to $6.765 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, after dropping to $6.5975 on April 1. It traded at $6.72, up 0.2 percent at 9:26 a.m. in Singapore on volume that was about 59 percent above the 100-day average for that time of day.
Freezing conditions early last week may have damaged so- called jointing wheat in the southern plains, while in the Delta region, heavy rain this week may delay spring field work, Bryce Anderson, an agricultural meteorologist at DTN, said in a report yesterday. Jointing refers to a stage when nodes develop on a plant’s stem, according to a Queensland government website.
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Wheat Futures – Farmers from Australia to Europe to the U.S. are poised to reap the second-largest wheat crop on record as fields recover from drought and heat waves, boosting global stockpiles for the first time in four years.
Output will climb 4.3 percent to 690 million metric tons, about 10 million tons short of the all-time high set two years ago, the United Nations estimates. Global inventories will increase by 2 million tons to 176 million tons, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences predicts. Prices will probably drop 16 percent to $6 a bushel in Chicago by the end of the year, according to the median of 16 analyst and trader estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
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Wheat Futures News- The global wheat harvest may climb 4.3 percent from the previous season, reaching the second- highest on record, as European farmers expanded acreage while yields rebound in Russia, the United Nations’ Food & Agriculture Organization said.
World output may total 690 million metric tons this year, compared with 661.8 million tons a year earlier, the Rome-based FAO said today in an online report. The harvest would be second only to the 2011 record. Wheat planting in the European Union may be about 3 percent bigger than a year earlier and weather conditions have been “generally favorable.” Ukraine may also see a “large recovery” in output after satisfactory winter conditions, the FAO said. Russia and eastern Europe had dry weather last year.
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Wheat futures rose in Paris as commodities gained amid speculation demand will improve after U.S. lawmakers reached an accord to avert the so-called fiscal cliff of spending cuts and tax increases.
The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 raw materials touched the highest level since Dec. 3 and the dollar slid after the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill preventing income taxes from rising for most workers in the country. The U.S. is the world’s biggest wheat exporter and fourth-largest consumer of the grain, after China, the European Union and India, as well as the leading shipper of corn and soybeans.
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Wheat futures headed for the biggest gain in more than a week as export sales surged to the highest in almost two years in the U.S., the world’s biggest shipper. Soybeans and corn were little changed.
Exporters sold 1 million metric tons of wheat in the week ended Dec. 20, the most since Jan. 13, 2011, and the fourth straight weekly increase, government data showed today. Prices fell 11 percent this month through yesterday, boosting the appeal of U.S. supplies for overseas buyers, said Brian Hoops, the president of Midwest Market Solutions.
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Wheat futures declined, erasing earlier gains, on speculation that rain and snow in the U.S. Great Plains and Midwest will boost prospects for crops that are dormant for the winter.
Snow is expected in parts of the southern Plains where hard-red winter wheat is grown, and precipitation may fall as a winter storm covers most of Iowa, Nebraska and northwestern Missouri, forecaster DTN said in a report today. Wheat futures through yesterday had gained 24 percent this year, partly on dry U.S. weather.
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Wheat futures traders are the least bullish in four weeks after the U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its world stockpile forecast for a second month, easing concern that droughts and heat waves will lead to shortages.
Thirteen analysts surveyed by Bloomberg said they expect prices to gain next week, 10 were bearish and one was neutral. That’s the lowest proportion of bulls since Nov. 16. Hedge funds cut their bets on higher prices by 57 percent since Aug. 7, two weeks after futures rallied to an almost four-year high after the worst U.S. drought in a half century, government data show.
The department on Dec. 11 raised its estimate for world inventories for May 31 by 1.6 percent, while analysts surveyed by Bloomberg anticipated a decline. Futures fell the most in two months. Wheat is leading gains in commodities this year after drought from Australia to Europe to the U.S. parched crops, at a time of near-record demand.
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Wheat Futures – The condition of winter-wheat crops in the U.S. are the worst for this time of year since the government began monitoring in 1985, as drought damage spread from Midwest corn and soybean fields to the Great Plains.
An estimated 40 percent of winter wheat, the most-common domestic variety, was rated good or excellent as of Oct. 28, with 15 percent poor or very poor, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in its first assessment of the season. A year earlier, 46 percent got the top ratings.
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Wheat production in Australia, the world’s second-biggest shipper, will probably decline 28 percent to the lowest level in five years, missing a government estimate, after dry weather reduced yields.
The harvest (ALHVS) will total 21.2 million metric tons in the 2012-2013 marketing year, according to the median of estimates from four analysts and two traders compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with 23.25 million tons in a survey last month and an official forecast of 22.5 million tons. The crop was a record 29.5 million tons last year.
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Wheat futures fell, capping the longest slump in 11 months, after Egypt, the world’s biggest importer of the grain, shunned U.S. inventories and bought supplies from Russia.
Egypt on Aug. 25 bought 120,000 metric tons of Russian wheat and 60,000 tons of Romanian wheat, the state-run General Authority for Supply Commodities said. Russian production of the grain may fall 27 percent this year after drought cut yields. The U.S. is expected in 2012-2013 to be the biggest exporter of wheat, followed by Australia, Canada and Russia.
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