commodity investing 101

commodity investing 101

June 9th, 2017

Grain prices struggled to hold their ground as concerns over 100-degree temperatures in the US clashed with forecasts from a much-watched report showing bigger-than-expected stocks of corn, soybeans and wheat ahead.

The US Department of Agriculture, in its much-watched monthly Wasde briefing on world crop supply and demand, raised its estimate for world and US corn and soybean inventories at the close of 2017-18 by more than had been expected.

And while the estimate for US corn stocks was left unchanged, that defied expectations of a decline, although the forecast for world inventories of the grain did fall below the figure the market had expected.

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wheat futures brokers

wheat futures brokers

September 14th, 2016

France’s wheat exports will fall to the lowest in more than a decade thanks to the dent to production from wet weather, with shipments outside the European Union to suffer a particularly sharp decline.

FranceAgriMer, in its first forecast for French soft wheat exports in 2016-17, pegged them at 11.91m tones – a drop of 43% year on year.

The decline, to the weakest volumes on data going back to 2006-07, reflected in particular weaker expectations for exports outside the EU, seen plunging by 63% year on year to 4.70m tonnes.

That would come in below the 4.91m tonnes recorded in 2007-08, a figure which also reflected a disappointing harvest.

However, this year’s crop proved particularly weak – pegged by FranceAgriMer falling 30% to 28.47m tonnes thanks to a yield which, at 5.45 tonnes per hectare, was the lowest in 33 years.

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wheat futures brokers

wheat futures brokers

April 5th, 2016

Moroccan wheat imports are set to soar, as domestic production collapses to its lowest level in 8 years, US government officials said.

The US Department of Agriculture’s bureau in Rabat estimated the 2016-17 Moroccan wheat harvest at just 3.7m tonnes, down 54% from last year’s record harvest, thanks to “dry and hot conditions during crop establishment”.

This represents a sharp reversal of fortunes from the previous season’s record breaking harvest.

“With this year’s drought, wheat imports are expected to start earlier in the year,” the bureau said, as it forecast 2016-17 imports as high as 4m tonnes, which would be the third highest on record.

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wheat options

wheat options

September 2nd, 2015

The world wheat market, having ridden out jitters over dryness in Europe and Australia, faced fresh concerns with a lack of rain raising questions over Russian sowings, while excessive wetness dogs South American prospects.

Russian farmers – whose grains production this year has far exceeded levels feared late last year, when a lack of rain dogged early development of winter crops – face another dry sowings period in many areas.

“It’s very dry in an area stretching from the Ukraine to central Russia,” said traders at a major European commodities house, which has substantial interests in the former Soviet Union.

“There are fears that this may delay planting in what is a fairly restricted window before the winter sets in.”

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wheat futures brokers

wheat futures brokers

April 28th, 2015

US winter wheat crops failed to show improvement again despite rains in the drought-hit southern Plains, with dryness worries growing in the north west of the country, and disease incidence taking a higher profile too.

The proportion of US winter rated “good” or “excellent” as of Sunday was 42%, for a third successive week, US Department of Agriculture data showed.

The stable rating defied expectations among many analysts of some improvement in the figure, after reports of rains to refresh crops in the central and southern Plains.

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wheat futures

wheat futures

August 13th, 2014

Wheat futures rose after the U.S. lifted the outlook for its exports of the grain as well as for global consumption, blunting the effect of increased production.

The U.S. is expected to ship 25.5 million metric tons of wheat in 2014-15, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said yesterday, lifting its outlook by 500,000 tons. The estimate for domestic ending stocks was little changed even as the agency raised its harvest forecast.

“In wheat, the situation remains largely unchanged in the U.S.,” Paris-based farm adviser Agritel wrote in an e-mailed comment. “Despite an increase in production, the export market improves with an outlook above 25.1 million tons, thus keeping ending stocks close to last month’s estimates.”

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wheat futures

wheat futures

August 4th, 2014

Wheat futures rose to a two-week high in Chicago on speculation that demand will increase for U.S. grain after wet weather eroded the quality of some crops in Europe.

France, the European Union’s biggest wheat grower, received twice the normal amount of rain on average in July, according to weather office Meteo-France. Wet weather late in the growing season probably cut quality of grain in both France and Germany, the second-biggest producer, Rabobank International said Aug. 1. The U.S. and EU each accounted for almost 20 percent of world exports last season, U.S. Department of Agriculture data show.

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wheat futures

wheat futures

August 1st, 2014

Wheat extended a decline to a four-year low in Paris on prospects for rising harvests in Europe and the Black Sea region even as excess rainfall raised concern in some areas about crop quality. Wheat rose in Chicago on signs of increasing demand for U.S. exports.

The soft wheat harvest in the European Union may be about 143 million metric tons, 5.1 percent more than the previous year, ADM Germany GmbH said yesterday. The harvest in France, the top EU grower, accelerated last week, with 76 percent of soft wheat crops collected in the main growing areas as of July 28, even as conditions deteriorated from the prior week, FranceAgriMer said today.

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wheat futures

wheat futures

July 22nd, 2014

Wheat rebounded amid speculation that yesterday’s slide to a four-year low may prompt some investors to close bets on a price drop and as rain forecast for parts of Europe raises concerns about crop quality.

Wheat futures in Chicago entered a bear market in June, and the most-active contract has dropped 28 percent from a peak of $7.44 a bushel on May 6. The 14-day relative strength index for wheat, a gauge of price momentum, was at 33.6, near the level of 30 below which some analysts consider indicates a security to be oversold.

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wheat futures brokers

wheat futures brokers

June 11, 2014

Wheat rebounded on speculation that demand will be rekindled after prices slumped to the lowest level in more than three months before a government report that may show global reserves rising to the highest in three years.

Futures for July delivery rose 0.6 percent to $6.05 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade by 3:56 a.m. local time after retreating to $5.9825, the lowest for a most-active contract since Feb. 28. Prices slumped 19 percent by yesterday from the 14-month closing high of $7.39 on May 6. A 20 percent drop meets the common definition of a bear market.

World stockpiles before the 2015 Northern Hemisphere harvest may be bigger than the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast last month according to a Bloomberg survey. The USDA updates its estimate today. Australia today lowered its crop forecast to 24.6 million metric tons from 24.8 million tons on dry weather.

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