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Wheat futures rose the most in more than two weeks on speculation that dry weather will curb yields in Kansas, the biggest U.S. producer of winter varieties.
About 52 percent of the Kansas crop was in good or excellent condition as of May 13, down from 60 percent a week earlier, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a report yesterday. Most of the state has received little or no rain in the past week, National Weather Service data show. Wheat prices have dropped 6.8 percent this year as favorable weather sped crop development.
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Wheat Futures – The fastest-ever development of the Kansas wheat crop is drawing a record number of surveyors seeking to gauge prospects for a harvest that is poised to swell the world’s grain bins and drive prices lower.
Kansas, the top U.S. grower of winter wheat, will collect 45.8 bushels an acre when the harvest starts in May, the most since 2003 and up from 35 bushels in 2011, based on the average estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 10 analysts, some of which are among the record 100 participants expected in this year’s crop tour. As of yesterday, grain had developed in 74 percent of the crop, the most for that date since at least 1981 and up from a five-year average of 7 percent, government data show.
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Wheat futures gained for the second straight day on speculation that demand will rise as more of the grain will be added to livestock feed as corn costs climb.
The price of corn, the main ingredient in U.S. animal feed, rose as much as 1.5 percent today in Chicago after the government announced overseas sales of 480,000 metric tons to unknown buyers. With less corn available in the U.S. and prices rising, some cattle producers in the southern Great Plains will add wheat to livestock rations, said David Lambert, head of the agriculture economics department at Kansas State University in Manhattan.
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Wheat futures rose on speculation that cold weather in U.S. growing areas may slow development of plants that have begun to emerge from the ground.
Plant germination for some spring wheat sown early in the northern Great Plains may be delayed by temperatures that have dropped below freezing, Telvent DTN Meteorologist Joel Burgio said in a report today. Frigid weather in Illinois and Indiana, where wheat is emerging after lying dormant during the winter, may hurt crops, Chicago-based QT Weather said.
“It probably got cold enough that there’s going to be some talk about damage in the Dakotas,” Mike Zuzolo, the president of Global Commodity Analytics in Lafayette, Indiana, said in a telephone interview. The temperature fell to 21 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 6 degrees Celsius) yesterday in Montana, and “that’s where the heart and soul of these bullish fundamentals lie,” he said.
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Wheat futures dropped for the second time this week as rain in the U.S., Russia and Ukraine boosted crop prospects and investor appetite waned after U.S. Federal Reserve minutes showed it may hold off more monetary stimulus.
Winter-wheat areas in the southern U.S. Great Plains had as much as 1.25 inches (3.2 centimeters) of rain since yesterday, with another inch forecast in the next five days, Bethesda, Maryland-based Commodity Weather Group said today in an e-mailed report. Showers in Russia and Ukraine also will aid crops, Telvent DTN said. The Fed will refrain from increasing monetary accommodation unless the U.S. economic expansion falters or prices rise at a rate slower than its 2 percent target, according to minutes of its March 13 meeting.
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