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Cocoa Futures: Cocoa Slides in London as Some Traders Bet on Increased Prices in December

Cocoa Futures Options Trading July 20th, 2010

Cocoa futures fell in London on signs some speculators are betting on price gains later this year after harvesting starts in Ivory Coast, the world’s largest grower.

Cocoa futures for September delivery slid 1.3 percent at 3:20 p.m. on the Liffe exchange in London as the December future rose 0.4 percent. All contract prices had gained earlier today on speculation that excessive rains may curb the Ivory Coast crop that starts in October.

“It looks to me like some people in the speculative camp rolled some length out of September and into December,” said Eric Sivry, head of cocoa brokerage at ABN Amro Markets (U.K.) Ltd. in London.

Cocoa futures for September traded at 2,315 pounds ($3,527) a metric ton, 124 pounds more than the December contract. That premium, a so-called backwardation that may indicate scarce supplies of the beans, compared with a “normal” discount of about 30 pounds, according to Sivry. The September contract expires Sept. 15.

“It is not surprising they do it so early ahead of the expiry” because September cocoa costs so much more than the December contract, Sivry said of switching between the two.

Ivory Coast is forecast to produce 1.28 million tons in the season that starts Oct. 1, up from 1.20 million tons a year earlier, according to Macquarie Group Ltd.

Cocoa Too Much Rain

Crop prospects may be worsening. Black pod disease has developed in parts of the African country after excess rains, causing some growers to cut down trees, according to farmers and the state-owned Fund for Developing and Promoting Coffee and Cocoa Activities.

“The rain is getting to the stage where it could be a concern,” said Kona Haque, an analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd. in London. “We need some of the intensity to start to weaken and more sun.”

Cocoa futures on ICE Futures U.S. in New York all slid, with the September contract down 1 percent to $2,951 a ton after yesterday’s 5.8 percent retreat.

Liffe last week reported the delivery of 240,100 tons of beans, the largest transfer since 1996, after the July future expired. As of July 12, warehouses held 246,810 tons of cocoa with valid grading certificates and another 51,460 tons of non- deliverable stockpiles, according to the exchange.

White, or refined, sugar for October delivery rose 0.3 percent to $535.60 a ton on Liffe. September-delivery robusta coffee fell 1.7 percent to $1,700 a ton.

 - Claudia Carpenter in London at Bloomberg.

See Also: Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Orange Juice, Sugar

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