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Corn Futures: Corn Drops to One-Month Low on Rising U.S., Global Inventories March 10th, 2010Corn futures fell for a fifth straight session, touching the lowest price in a month, after the government said inventories before this year’s harvest will be bigger than forecast. The U.S. surplus on Aug. 31 will be 1.799 billion bushels, more than the 1.719 billion forecast in February, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News estimated 1.713 billion, on average. Global inventories will be 140.2 million metric tons, up from 134 million projected in February, the USDA said. “Inventories are growing, and that’s going to be bearish for the market,” said Mark Schultz, the chief analyst at Northstar Commodity Investment Co. in Minneapolis. “Bigger crops in South America will curtail U.S. exports.” Corn futures for May delivery fell 3.5 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $3.655 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, marking the first five-day decline since Jan. 20. Earlier, the most-active contract touched $3.625, the lowest price since Feb. 9. Corn has fallen 12 percent this year after the just-ended harvest produced a record crop. The U.S. corn harvest will reach a 13.131 billion bushels in the current crop-marketing year, which ends Aug. 31, down from 13.151 billion projected in February, the USDA said today. The latest assessment reflects a review of crops in Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin. Beat EstimatesThe average estimate of 20 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News was for 13.088 billion bushels in the current marketing year. The USDA will make a final estimate after reviewing harvests in North Dakota and South Dakota, where inclement weather persisted longer than in other areas.“The crop could end up 40 or 50 million bushels smaller, but it’s a small change,” Schultz said. World corn production in the year that began on Oct. 1 will be a record 803.7 million metric tons, up from 797.8 million tons forecast last month and 1.6 percent more than an estimated 794.5 million produced in the previous year, the USDA said. Production forecasts were increased for Argentina, rising to 21 million tons from 17.2 million estimated last month, and South Africa, which is expected to produce 13.5 million tons, up from 11.5 million forecast in February. World wheat inventories were forecast to rise 19 percent to 196.8 million tons this year compared with the previous year, the largest amount since 2002, the USDA said. “There’s no shortage of grain in the world,” said David Smoldt, the vice president of operations for broker FCStone LLC in West Des Moines, Iowa. “The huge stocks of wheat will keep pressure on corn because any rally will encourage more consumption of wheat.” - Jeff Wilson in Chicago at Bloomberg. Click here for your Free Corn Futures Trading eGuide |
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