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Dow Jones Futures: Crude Oil Tops $77 a Barrel After U.S. Equities Advance to One-Month High

Dow Jones Futures and Options Jun 18th, 2010   

Crude oil rose above $77 a barrel as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased to the highest level in a month and the dollar pared its gains against the euro.

Oil advanced for a second week, along with equities. The S&P 500 climbed amid volatility related to stock futures and options expiration. The dollar retreated after touching a three- week high against the euro, bolstering the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.

“We’re following the stock market and we’re following the dollar,” said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFGBest in Chicago. “Oil has no personality of its own today. It’s just going to follow what everybody else does.”

Crude oil for July delivery gained 39 cents, or 0.5 percent, to settle at $77.18 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have risen 8.1 percent in the past year. They increased 4.6 percent this week, the most in three weeks.

The S&P 500 rose 1.47 points to 1,117.51, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 16.47 points to 10,450.64. Both closed at the highest level since May 18.

The dollar increased 0.2 percent against the euro to $1.2364 from $1.2389 yesterday in New York. It touched $1.2417, the highest level since May 28.

Price fluctuations throughout the financial markets were bigger than usual today because of so-called quadruple witching, or the quarterly expiration of stock index futures, options on index futures, stock options and stock futures. Quadruple witching occurs once every three months.

Drilling Moratorium

Tighter regulation of offshore rigs prompted by the BP Plc oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico may delay exploration projects and trim global output by as much as 900,000 barrels a day if a moratorium on deep-water drilling spreads beyond the U.S., Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of the International Energy Agency, said today in Fukui, Japan.

Total SA Chief Executive Officer Christophe de Margerie said today that the world needs the oil that can be produced from deep-water fields, so a lasting reduction in supply is unlikely.

“We’ll have to make sure this doesn’t happen again, but this oil needs to be produced,” he told Bloomberg Television at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in Russia. “The world is needing it so I don’t think it will have long-term impact.”

Price Rebound

Crude oil may extend a two-week rebound in New York with prices ending this week above a Fibonacci level at $75.70 a barrel, according to technical analysis by Petromatrix GmbH.

That corresponds to the half-way point in crude’s move this year from a peak of $87.15 a barrel on May 3 to a low of $64.24 on May 20.

Oil may rise next week after U.S. demand climbed 1.6 percent to 9.34 million barrels a day last week, a Bloomberg News survey showed. Eleven of 21 analysts, or 52 percent, forecast crude will increase through June 25. Six respondents, or 29 percent, predicted futures will be little changed and four said prices will decline. Last week, 42 percent of analysts said the market would gain.

Oil fell 1.1 percent yesterday after the Labor Department reported initial jobless applications in the U.S. climbed by 12,000 to 472,000 in the week ended June 12, a one-month high. U.S. housing starts fell 10 percent in May, the biggest drop since March 2009, the Commerce Department reported June 16.

Economy

“The fact that the economic indicators have not been good, the unemployment numbers and housing, hasn’t been making people feel good, especially after a $7 to $8 run-up in prices,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts.

Oil on the Nymex surged 8.7 percent between June 7 and June 16 as the euro advanced, refiners cut operating rates and fuel demand was forecast to climb during the peak driving season in the U.S.

Gasoline consumption declined in May to the lowest level for the month since 2003, according to a report today by the American Petroleum Institute. Deliveries of gasoline, a measure of demand, averaged 9.05 million barrels a day, down from 9.09 million in May 2009. Consumption averaged 0.5 percent lower in the first five months of 2010 from the year earlier.

“Demand seems to have hit a wall in terms of growing any faster,” said Peter Beutel, president of trading advisory company Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Connecticut.

Gasoline for July delivery lost 1.64 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $2.1476 a gallon on the Nymex. Heating oil for July delivery retreated 1.85 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $2.1289 a gallon.

Brent crude for August settlement dropped 46 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $78.22 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London.

Oil volume in electronic trading on the Nymex was 414,033 contracts as of 3:24 p.m. in New York. Volume totaled 772,281 contracts yesterday, 1.5 percent below the average of the past three months. Open interest was 1.3 million contracts.

 - Margot Habiby in Dallas at Bloomberg.



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