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Gold Futures Gain On Demand For Inflation Hedge; Silver Rises

Gold Futures OptionsMay 9th, 2008

Gold futures rose in New York, capping the biggest weekly gain since February, on speculation a weaker dollar and rising energy costs will boost investor demand for the metal as a hedge against inflation. Silver also gained.

Crude-oil futures reached $126.20 a barrel today, setting a record for the fifth straight session, and the dollar headed for a weekly loss against the euro. Gold has underperformed oil and the euro since reaching a record $1,033.90 an ounce on March 17, when investors bought the metal as a haven against turmoil in financial markets.

``We're going to continue to go back and forth for a while yet,'' said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day's Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland. ``I'm holding, given my expectation of long-term appreciation. I don't cancel my house insurance if I don't expect a problem in the next few months, so I'm not selling my gold either.''

Gold futures for June delivery gained $3.70, or 0.4 percent, to $885.80 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The metal rose 3.2 percent this week, the biggest gain late February.

Silver futures for July delivery rose 4 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $16.91 an ounce in New York. The price has advanced 13 percent this year.

Some investors may buy gold as a cheaper alternative to oil, analysts say. Last year, gold moved almost in lockstep with oil at a coefficient of 0.92, according to Bloomberg data. The coefficient has been 0.07 this year. The coefficient measures to what degree two variables move in unison, with a maximum reading of 1.

`Hanging On'


``Gold is hanging on because of its correlation with oil,'' said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management in Evanston, Illinois. ``Is gold lagging, or is oil topping? You can either buy gold at this point, or sell oil.''

Still, some investors are reluctant to buy gold because the metal hasn't performed in line with the &cls;euro&cle; and oil. Gold has dropped 14 percent since March 17, when the euro and oil set previous highs. The euro set another record of $1.6019 on April 22 and crude oil is up 12 percent since its intraday high on March 17.

``The market is not responding to any bullish support,'' said Tom Hartmann, a commodity analyst at Altavest Worldwide Trading Inc. in Mission Viejo, California. ``If the market doesn't respond to bullish news, that's a bearish sign.''

Price Charts


Historical price charts also signal the metal may be headed lower in the near term, said Matt Zeman, a metals trader at LaSalle Futures Group Inc. in Chicago.

``A lot of traders will be selling into any rallies at this point because gold is trading below most of its moving averages,'' Zeman said. ``If gold is trading below the 50-day moving average, you're going to sell rallies because the overall intermediate trend is down.''

Gold's 40-day moving average is $916.97 and its 50-day moving average is $929.32. It is still trading above its 200-day moving average of $827.75, a signal that the long-term bull trend is still in place.

- Pham-Duy Nguyen in Seattle at Bloomberg.

See Also: Gold, Copper, Silver, Platinum

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