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Grain Futures Review: Spring Planting Speculation Drives Price

Grain Futures and Options April 28th, 2008

Speculation regarding delayed spring planting impacted U.S. cash grain prices Monday, sending cash contracts of corn higher
and soybean futures sharply lower.

May Chicago Board of Trade corn futures closed with gains of 24 cents per bushel, reclaiming all of the elevation that contract lost last week.

"The continued strength in corn remains tied to wet and cool weather and the resulting planting delays," said a CBOT market report. "Traders are looking for
this afternoon's (U.S. Department of Agriculture) crop progress reports to show planting progress at 15% or higher, compared to a 10-year average of 29%. Last
week, only 4% of the (U.S.) crop had been planted."

Meanwhile, cash contracts of soybeans plunged more than 40 cents Monday,equaling all of last week's losses in a single trading session.

"Cool and wet weather forecasts...could delay corn planting enough to push some acreage intended for corn, back to soybeans," said Doane Agricultural
Services.

Nearby wheat futures rose 14 to 24 cents at all three U.S. grain exchanges Monday.

"(Hard red spring wheat) plantings are seen roughly 34% to 36% complete, which is up from a year ago, but slightly behind (the) 40% average," said Iowa
Grain.

Domestic basis premiums paid for most classes of U.S. grain - other than winter wheat - had strengthened by an average of 1 to 2 cents entering Monday's
trading session, reacting to reduced farmer selling caused by wet weather and last week's swoon in futures prices. Flooding closed several locks on the upper
Mississippi River outright Monday.

"Too much water is impeding Mississippi River barge grain shipments. Elevators along the mid-Miss. have stopped loading, and it could take a week or
more for water levels to come down," said Ag Management Services market consultant Rich Balvanz. "Sources tell us that it is possible that some May
(grain) deliveries to river terminals may be deferred if the situation does not improve."

A two-cent decline in cash corn basis at the U.S. Gulf represented the sole fluctuation in premiums seen on the U.S. CIF market Monday. Differing dynamics
kept spot basis virtually unchanged for other commodities, as slow country movement offset slack foreign demand. A USDA report said export inspections
fell 15% for corn, 21% for wheat, 33% for soybeans, and 49% for sorghum during the past week.


CROP WEATHER



Precipitation was falling across portions of the Midwest and Southeast again Monday, while dry weather favored the advance of farm fieldwork across the
Great Plains and Delta.

"Showers continue to slow corn planting across the Ohio River Valley, while a mixture of rain and snow is falling from Wisconsin southward into Missouri,"
USDA meteorologist Eric Luebehusen said in a morning weather report. "A large spring storm is expected to impact much of the central U.S. during the latter
half of the week, with another round of late-season snow in the northern Plains and potentially severe weather in the lower and middle Mississippi Valley."


- By Gary Wulf, Dow Jones Newswires.

See Also: Corn Futures, Soybean Futures, Wheat Futures

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