Gold Bugging

June 1^st, 2008
  By Chris Mcmahon

Huge liquidity and an easy monetary policy have resulted in more investors looking at commodities as an asset class. "With that, the crude market, as the bellwether of the energy complex has led everything higher, natural gas included," says Eric Wittenauer, analyst at Wachovia Securities. "Prices will remain underpinned because natural gas remains undervalued per Btu compared with crude oil. And domestic prices are considerably lower than international prices," which dictate liquid natural gas prices, he says. In July, he says support is at $10.95.

Not only that, but inventories have gone from a 13% surplus to a 15% deficit over last year, observes Fain Shaffer, president of Infinity Trading Corp. And the Commitment of Traders report shows commercial natural gas traders are net long approximately 23,000 contracts. Further, non-commercials are net short 65,000 contracts, so he infers that there is still a lot of short covering to go, particularly as the commercial category does not pull out the index funds, which add a large amount of long positions.

"The next objective is $14, especially with all the other energies at their highest ever," Shaffer says. In July, support is $12 and ultimately he expects $16 by the end of cooling season. "And that's without a hurricane," he says.

Gold has started tracking stocks and has put in a near-term low

September 1^st, 2007
  By Chris Mcmahon

With the U.S. dollar hitting a 10-year low and with a rocky equities market, you might expect gold to explode to the upside. Instead, gold has started tracking stocks and has put in a near-term low, observes Charles Nedoss , senior account manager at Peak Trading Group. "The Fed Funds rate used to be a great predictor," he says, but with the new credit crunch, the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks are pumping money into the system to calm nervous investors. That could drive the U.S. dollar lower, reignite inflation fears and push gold up. "As much as we concentrate on our core rate, around the world costs are getting higher and commodities are going higher, too," he says, adding, eventually gold will go with them. He expects gold to challenge $718 per ounce in September and picks a low of $655.

Fain Shaffer, president of Infinity Trading Corporation is bearish gold for the remainder of the year. "It can't seem to break out past $700," Shaffer says. He attributes that partly to hedge funds selling off gold and stocks in an effort to raise cash and deal with the subprime mortgage collapse. "I don't know what to make of gold right now, but if the dollar tanks, below 80, there could be a flight to quality," he says. Shaffer expects gold to trade between $670 and $700 in September.

Gassed

September, 1^st, 2006
  By Chris McMahon

Natural gas has been an enigma. After rallying to all-time highs at the end of 2005, natural gas futures dropped 66% by July 10, despite the continued bull market in crude oil. And while it rallied more than $3 per mBtu in July, it is not that price action that has analysts perplexed and led to the closure of energy based hedge fund Mother Rock LP, but the dramatic shift in the calendar and volatility spreads. The shift moved the Sept/Dec differential from under $1 to more than $3 from January to April.

Analysts point to weather anomalies such as last winter's record warm temperatures and the increased severity of hurricanes for throwing off normal relationships.

"Recently the spread has been getting whacked," says Alaron energy analyst Phil Flynn, adding, "There is a new dynamic in this market."

Typically gas inventories build during summer months and drop during the winter heating season, but the reverse was true last year as inventories built up during the mild winter and recently dropped in July and August.

Fain Shaffer, president of Infinity Trading, says, "In the past, the big moves have been for a heating play, now it's a hurricane play."

The hurricane factor may account for the spread differential as the December contract faces the full affect of the hurricane season.

Nothing glitters like gold.

August 1^st, 2006
  By Chris McMahon

In early July gold had already recovered some of its losses when increasing geopolitical instability pushed it up $80 per ounce in two weeks.

With Iran refusing to abandon its nuclear aspirations, North Korea test firing intercontinental ballistic missiles, and Israel bombing the Beirut Airport while militants fired missiles into northern Israel , gold is back on the bull after a major correction .

John Welsh, SVP of Peregrine Financial Group Inc., isn't convinced the bull is back despite recent strength. "I don't expect the U.S. dollar to collapse," Welsh adds . He pegs the high for October gold at $685 with a low of $590.

Fain Shaffer, president of Infinity Trading, says gold is responding to multiple factors and could hit $750. Besides wars, China announced it will quintuple its gold reserves. "The big thing that really made it run was the verbiage in the fed statement that we may be close to an end of interest rate raises," Shaffer says.

Shaffer notes gold tanked to $550 then recovered to break above the 20-day moving average of $600, which he calls the new support level. It will now test $730 or $732. "We may make a double top and start coming down."

Both of our analysts called for gold to continue its meteoric rise, with Fain Shaffer, president of Infinity Trading, speculating that gold would trade between a high of $550 per ounce and a low of $500. James R. Steel, VP of research at Man Global Research, said gold would trade between a high of $535, with support at $510. After a bit of a correction Comex gold closed well above $550 an ounce on Jan. 13, helped by a slightly softening dollar.