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Brazil soybean planting forecast to break a record for the ninth year running

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April 26th 2018

Soybean planted area in Brazil is forecast to set a record for the ninth consecutive year at 35.8 million hectares, according to an April 24 Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The 2% increase in planted area in 2018-19 is due to expectations of higher process, higher-than-expected demand from Chinese buyers, and an increase in domestic soybean consumption, the report said.

Production is forecast to reach 115 million tons, which would be the country’s second largest soybean crop ever.

“Despite the record planted area, production is forecast slightly lower than the previous year based on yields trend,” the USDA said. “Productivity during the 2017-18 and 2016-17 seasons were way above trend because of ideal weather conditions throughout Brazil and excellent performance by new technologies in the market.”

The report said domestic crush is forecast at 44 million tons in 2018-19, with the increase being “a result of the continuation of the economic recovery in Brazil as well as expect demand.”

It said Brazil has an estimated crushing capacity of 62 million tons, of which 70% is expected to be utilized this year. As a result, no new investments in crushing facilities are expected in Brazil in the short term.

Soybean exports are forecast at 67 million tons, with strong demand expected from China, the report said. That is down slightly from last year’s export record of 69 million tons.

 - MERCO.

 

See Also: Corn Futures, Soybean Futures, Wheat Futures
Soybean futures, Corn, Wheat Tumble on Indications of Reduced Demand From Japan
By Jeff Wilson and Whitney McFerron - Mar 15, 2011

Soybean futures and corn tumbled the maximum allowed on the Chicago Board of Trade and wheat plunged the most in seven months on concern that the earthquake and nuclear crisis in Japan will reduce raw-material demand.

Equities in Japan had the biggest two-day drop since the 1987 crash as the risk of radiation leaks north of Tokyo escalated. U.S. Treasuries surged. Japan is the world’s leading buyer of corn, the third-largest importer of soybeans and the fifth-biggest purchaser of wheat.

“Increasing levels of radiation have people dumping positions in stocks and commodities and piling assets into cash,” said Alan Brugler, the president of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC in Omaha, Nebraska. “There’s increased risk aversion until the situation stabilizes in Japan.”

Corn futures for May delivery fell by the CBOT limit of 30 cents, or 4.5 percent, to close at $6.36 a bushel at 1:15 p.m., the lowest since Jan. 20.

Soybean futures for May delivery declined the 70-cent maximum, or 5.2 percent, to close at $12.70 a bushel, the lowest since Dec. 13.

Wheat futures for May delivery dropped 53 cents, or 7.4 percent, to close at $6.6775 a bushel in Chicago, the biggest decline since Aug. 6.

Oats fell the 20-cent maximum to a six-month low, while rice and soybean-oil futures also fell by the exchange limits in Chicago.

Shipments into Kashima and other ports on Japan’s east coast were stopped because of power outages after the 9.0- magnitude earthquake and tsunami, Zen-Noh, Japan’s largest corn buyer, said yesterday. Japan said today it plans to buy 32,381 metric tons of wheat in a tender on March 17, 76 percent less than it purchased last week.

Screen Imports

Asian countries moved to screen food imports from Japan following explosions at the Fukushima nuclear plant that raised radiation levels at the complex to harmful levels.

South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines took steps to check fruit, vegetables, meat and seafood from Japan for nuclear material.

“It’s a fear-driven trade” focused on Japan, said Frank Cholly Sr., a senior strategist at Lind-Waldock, a broker in Chicago. “Demand is going to slow down, because even though they need to eat, they have more urgent things. They’ve got to stop the radiation leak, and they’ve got to find any survivors.”

Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, valued at $66.7 billion in 2010, followed by soybeans at $38.9 billion, government figures show. Wheat is the fourth-largest, behind hay, at $13 billion.

 - Jeff Wilson and Whitney McFerron in Chicago at Bloomberg.