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Wheat Futures Rise On Speculation U.S. Winter Crop Ratings To Drop

Wheat Futures and Options TradingApril 28th, 2008

Wheat futures rose for the first time in four sessions on speculation a U.S. government report today will show the country's winter-crop ratings have declined because of dry weather in the southern Great Plains.

Counties in the western parts of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas had little rain in the past week, National Weather Service data show. The Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its report at 4 p.m. in Washington. Last week, about 45 percent of the crop was in good or excellent condition.

``People are looking for some deterioration, which would offer a little support'' for prices, said Dewey Strickler, president of Ag Watch Market Advisers in Nashville, Tennessee.

Wheat futures for July delivery climbed 25.5 cents, or 3.1 percent, to $8.41 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. The price fell 7.9 percent last week on speculation that countries including India, France and Spain will boost output. The most- active contract has still gained 68 percent in the past year, reaching a record $13.495 on Feb. 27.

Early reports show little harm to winter crops from freezing temperatures that reached as far south as the Texas Panhandle over the weekend, private forecaster Meteorlogix LLC said. About 45 percent of the winter crop was rated good or excellent as of April 20, the USDA said last week.

Planting Delays


Planting of the spring and durum wheat crop was delayed last week in the northern Great Plains, after storms dropped snow and ice. As much as six times the normal precipitation fell in parts of North Dakota and Minnesota, National Weather Service data show.

``There was a big slowdown in the past couple days with that storm system coming through,'' Strickler said. Still, spring-wheat planting is ``coming along normally,'' he said.

About 20 percent of the spring crop in the U.S. was seeded as of April 20 compared with 23 percent, on average, for the past five years, the USDA said last week.

Wheat's gains may have been limited by a report that India, the world's second-biggest consumer of wheat, had accelerated purchases of the grain from local farmers. State- run agencies, including Food Corp. of India, have bought 12.6 million metric tons since April 1, up 66 percent from a year earlier, the government said today.

The Indian government expects farmers will have harvested a record 76.8 million tons in the year ending May 31, up from 75.8 million tons a year earlier. India has said it may buy as much as 19 million tons of locally grown wheat this year, 71 percent more than in 2007, to build reserves.

Wheat was the fourth-biggest U.S. crop in 2007, valued at $13.7 billion, behind corn, soybeans and hay, government data show.

- Tony C. Dreibus in Chicago at Bloomberg.




See Also: Corn Futures, Soybean Futures, Wheat Futures

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